Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

$100/share in sight... time for take off

[thelostarc]

From here, it's a double near term

[Finbarr]

hmmm... it'd be nice, but I was thinking that we'd get to 120 in 3-4 years...and be in a place where reasonable eranings and a PE of 14 or so would make for a solid footing, Did I muff my math? 

[PabloLafortune]

In order for the stock to really get ahead of itself we will need better gross margins (ie over 20%) and we will need substantial YoY top line and bottom line growth.  So Q1 (ie May results) is when that starts IMO. My own upside # is $150 in May 2025.

[BBDB859]

Hey Pablo. You're 100% right about Margins. They do have to go to a minimum of 20%. That's close to where the Bombers Gross Margins are right now. In fact they will have to go 25% where Gulfstream's are. This will generate the profits they need to take care of their LTD, and the growth they need keep the company ahead of their competition. Especially Gulfstream. If Revs from Service

[PabloLafortune]

859, if gross margins reach 25% one day, all bets are off as to the share price. While we're at it, there will be share buybacks down rhe road 3-4 years too which would leave a mark on the share price as well. Back to reality...

[Inuk138]

Pablo -   What do you mean by  there will be share buybacks down rhe road 3-4 years too which would leave a mark on the share price as well. Back to reality.

[PabloLafortune]

Most stocks esp in the US receive significant price support in the form of share buybacks. If they didn't buyback shares every year, their share price would be much lower. Say for example a company has 100M shares and every year 20M share are bought and sold net net - ie 80M shares are held by shareholders who didn't transact and simply left their stock in their account -  so share

[BBDB859]

Pablo. My feeling is that the Bomber won't be doing Share buy backs, for 3 to 4 years, if they do that at all. Given that they did it before the RS for $70M only. They quickly found out that didn't even make a dent on the outstanding 2.4B shares before the RS. So got the RS instead. I suspect they'll try it in 2026 onward. But I'm not selling my shares to them until I get the

[NoNameAtAll]

BBD, I think you missed that the company continued with their share buy-back plan afer the consolidation.  Here is a article that gives the detials:   https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/BOMBARDIER-INC-1409152/news/Bombardier-Inc-TSX-BBD-A-announces-an-Equity-Buyback-for-880-000-shares-representing-1-03-of-it-40317365/

[BBDB859]

Yes thank you Nobody,.they did. There was some cash left over post split from the initial Buy back that they spent post. Small part.

[Truthifest]

859, please note that mgmt's guidance for 2023 is a 15-20% increase in deliveries, not 10-15%, if I understood your statement correctly.  The Company reiterated that guidance recently during the last call.  They also said, IIRC, they'll be updating the 2025 Plan during next year's Investor Day.  Assuming that's March or April means we could soon get that as a big

[BBDB859]

Hey Truth. I get that at 3;30 am yesterday when I got in from a X-mas Party and other times here in my posts, I may have forgoten things, or have given general numbers etc. I do these general numbers on purpose. Because I want to give a general picture on the Bomber's direction of positive progress. Nothing in managements production goals & Guidence in ER's is written in stone either

[Noredneck]

hahahahaha... and in 2024 you will say let's wait for 2025 and so on.... you remind me of some analyst that forecast an uptrend in the SP when the actual share price is already higher... 

[Truthifest]

859, yeah, there's a lot of give and take in the numbers for sure.  And I'm with you on the general story and direction being the main thing.  To me, by far the main thing, and this coming from a career-long finance & investments guy.  Took me a long time to figure out that many of the details are, surprisingly to me, immaterial from a stock price perspective.  I

[PabloLafortune]

859, 3-4 years is what I was talking about. BRP is doing a lot of buybacks. I was just pointing out that generally speaking stocks that dont buyback are undervalued relative to peers that do.

[BBDB859]

Got it. Thanks for the explanation.

[BBDB859]

Hey Pablo. Sorry X-mas Parties etc. So I just got in an hour back trying to catch up. You're right. Reality is still not here for the company. The Bomber's Share Price of today in the BJ industry is like Canada's soccer team entry in the 2022 World Cup. The Bomber isn't there yet, just like Canada isn't there yet in soccer.

[flamingogold]

Let's not forget the potential of the Defense division which will goose overall margins.

[PabloLafortune]

859, I just read RBC's ebitda guidance update. So obviously I'm out to lunch with my 20% gross margins, your 25% closer to what RBC is saying 27%???. Being somewhat prudent (paranoid?) tbh, I'll believe it when I see it. Ditto for the $8.7B revenue. But if it comes to pass, I will only have one word: chapeau.

[BBDB859]

Hi Pablo. Let me clarify. I would like to say that my previous post is 100% right. But as far as Gross Margins go? It's all guessing. I'm doing it all by memory from all the Bomber's competitors Financials that  I've read in the past. I'm only writing the 25% Gross Margin, from memory, from I've read from ER's for Gulfstream & Dassault. But we have to remember