TSX:BBD.A - Post Discussion
Post by
BBDB859 on Sep 16, 2024 9:58pm
Repost
Sorry I got interupted while I posted during the
third paragraph so I'll correct it.
Hey Chris. Read the article I was responding to, from aviation234 September 12th. The poster that posted the article, said that it was from the recent conferance at MS Laguna Conferance. I don't remember the exact words of the article, so i'll paraphrase. The article writer that I quoted from in that post, is implying that, by 2030, the Bomber's management is expectating their revenues from CPO (used market of services) and Defence & Services combined, will be 50% of the companies 2030 yearly Revenues. So it's a simple deduction. If we build 150 to 155 airplanes a year X $45M average per plane = $6.75B to $6.975B from new planes yrly. That X 2 = $13.5B to $13.95B. U just divide the $14B by 2, to get half from new planes to half from all other services. That's $14B X18% margins (I'll verify in the paragraph below) = $$2.7B to $2.8B EBITDA - minus today's $650M to $700M constant yrly expenses with Interest payments on the LTD. That will give us around $2B of +FCF/EBIT. I used 18% but I could just as easily use 20% margins, because the article also said that the Business Jet market is expected to be healthy till 2030, So B2B steady, & thus pricing will stay health, because of the strong backlog. So that means that margings will also grow closer to the 20% to 24%, similar to GD's Gulfstream now. The other reason for high margins was, because the higher expectation of deliveries of the larger Globals going forward, as the Global supply chain will get better going forward. Plus the G8000 will have the similar design of the G7500. So bonus. Now according to the new RBC article of today from Temp, the Business jet market is going to be steady till 2030. Therefore the Book to Bill will stay 1 to 1, according to the Laguna Conference article too. Therefore, we'll have a healthy pricing growth from the newbuild & we'll have 50% of the Revenue from the High Margin Service, CPO, and Defense side. So as u can see that, the Managements assumptions in the Conference was CORRECT according to the article today by Temp, and the backlog consistency, from the strong demand from Fractional Ownership going forward. If the stock hits the $350 range in 2030, I'll be happy. But I'll be out long before that. I anticipate I'll take half of my position out at around $150, and the other Quarter at around $200. ChrisM5527 wrote:I wanted to understand your thought process. I read today that someone from these conferences stated BBD thinks $2B FCF is possible 2030. I never saw that before (the $2B). Is this what you base your thoughts on for the $500 SP? Im just curious. The $2B might drive $300 SP. not as sure about $500. Some insight to your thinking would be appreciated. Thx Chris
Be the first to comment on this post