RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Look for 100% return We've had many discussions trying to figure out the bomber's real value in the past , and like yourself , my evaluations always came out looking like pie-in-the-sky dreams ... no matter how you crunch the numbers bottom line is that the bomber gets no live out there , their past is haunting them more than I and many others thought it would .. We have to be patient , very patient , to get to see a fair evaluation ... the service department will be very profitable , and much more in demand going forward ... there has never been so much growth and demand in private flying , business is booming and under promising is in full force at the bomber , nothing can go wrong, not even supply issues because tge management got in front of it with backup plans ... mainstream media and non-believers will not jump on the bandwagon just yet , but when they do we will see large numbers , big numbers never seen before , the biggest numbers ;) ... analysts can only use numbers from tge company along with estimates but at the end of the day it is all speculation because once the numbers are out , it becomes the past ... tfe future is in profits and they are coming , I always take solace In DOO.to to reminds me that the family is in it for the long run and they will do what they need to ( even take partners) to get to where they have to be ... the skies are blue my friends ... GLTA
quote=BBDB859]I have come up with similar numbers posted here on the board. I said that a $220 SP wasn't out of the question by 2025. This was when the SP came down to $18.00 post R/S. I remember having the conversations with some posters like Club and Bottoms, on future EV evaluations for the company. When some other posters like LE/bogo commented that those numbers were outrageous. The numbers don't lie. GD's SP in the $230's. and Bombardier has better products, is more inovative, is stronger in production, and getting stronger, than its Gulfstream franchise. So they're we're now all validated more or less as a group. Cheers.
PabloLafortune wrote: I only "follow" GD, TXT and Airbus, even then it's superficial . The P/Es which excludes debt are similar 19-22. The EV to sales which includes debt varies more from 1.26 to 1.92. If you look at a blowout napkin target for BBD in 2023, 144 deliveries, $45M ASP, $1.5B service revenue, 19% gross margins, $680M G&a and R&D (guess it will be higher for sure) and $375 M interest, you get based on 20 P/E a $125! Share price. Based on EV/Sales, $110 or so. It gets even better over time because interest a big component of expense will go down as debt is retired - on my napkin I get $200+ share price based on 20 P/E and no interest - now that's not pie in the sky, that's pie in the stratosphere!!!. But that's assuming everything goes according to my napkin. There's a lot of variables - inflation, backlog, balanced order flow, competition, debt retirement timing and costs ( the irony of getting a better credit rating is that it costs you more to retire debt early) etc etc... that may not go exactly according to my napkin or that I'm straight off dreaming. Still it gives an idea of potential upside from here. It's interesting that debt and interest reduction has as much of an impact on the share price as higher sales and margins at least from a P/E perspective.
What could derail us? Backlog. But cool CEO didn't seem worried so I won't either.
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