Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

US NAT GAS $4.62 - but confusing reports from EIA

[PlutusofCrete]

One EIA report says coal will account for 85% of electricity production in 2022. Also notes that a record amount of coal plants will be retired. You would think this would result in even more demand for nat gas...however another EIA report says nat gas demand going down...confusing. Both reports are Jan 2022. 

Coal will account for 85% of U.S. electric generating capacity retirements in 2022

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50838

U.S. natgas output to rise, demand to ease in 2022 -EIA

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-output-rise-demand-ease-2022-eia-2022-01-11/

[robert41]

Thx for posting .... does seem there's something missing when they close a plant where does the power that they lost come from and what's it powered by? Too bad they don't mention that I can't imagine that it's renewables.

[TouchDown12]

Always take EIA reports with a grain of salt. They tend to tout the industrialized world's "how we WANT it to turn out" rather then take a more critical thinking and objective supply/demand view. Think of it like watching an NFL game where the TV analyst once played for the home team. Good info but somewhat biased. Just my take. TD12

[PlutusofCrete]

Nat gas now at $4.82...talk about extreme volatility. 

[ratsnake220]

ng could go to $10

[DeepValueOil88]

It can go to $999. It was tested recently. Contracts frequently price gouging high. Europeans were mid 200s! Average pricing at Dawn could go to $25. Birchcliff will have its day. It is a far superior business now. IMO is selling Montney assets at effective auction by RBC CM. Welcome consolidation phase! Opportunity knocks. BIR price target $22.

[Burgersandfries]

You say it could go to $999 and that it was tested recently?? Where?? $22 outlandish predictions like this is what confuse people ok maybe if gas can stay at $4 minimum all year every year going forward yes BIR could get there in a couple of years but not any time soon! There will be more supply that's a given producers are increasing supply. Not by a lot but it's happening. 

[robert41]

I guess I'm a dummy but I don't understand your post. Like burgers said sustained $4 gas at a minimum may bring $22 dollars a share but when? Probably 2 or 3 years out at a minimum. I like BIR I bought very low and a ton of shares and I like these big numbers by some posters but they are insane. 

[Burgersandfries]

Oh yah when and for how long? Why post that without evidence to back it up. We need solid prices and for them to be less volatile l. Who cares if it goes to 10 bucks for 3 days? 

[mjh9413]

Plutusofcrete, maybe someone told you this already but the eia report was ALL about RETIREMENTS of different types of hydro prodn facilities. Only thing missing is what makes up the retired generating capacity. However, the amount of 14.9Gwh is insignificant since the US used 4million Gwh in 2020!!!!!!.