Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Premarket bids $1.43

[Unlucky13]

Even with oil up looks like consolidation.  What happened to the "to the moon guys" in here.  No "takeoff and rocket to the moon today."  How about the "$2" close!  "$3 by summer and "$5" in 6 months.  Never mind what you think BTE should trade at it's what it actually trades at and that is $1.40 something at $65 oil.

If the crystal ball aligns and oil stays and averages $60 for the year BTE can pay off about 1/6 to 1/7 of their debt, $500 million is owed in three years so they need $60 oil for 2 years to pay off that $500 million and actually build a base so they don't have to dip into the credit line.

At current value they are valued at about 2.5 times current cash flow.  That's on the forward strip.  I don't see how that number drastically changes, the only way the share price substantially goes up is if the oil price jumps dramatically from here.

If oil were to average $100 this year based on that price and a 2.5x value from cash flow BTE would be about $3 a share.  Only when debts are squared will it go any higher in my honest opinion.

Also, if oil is back under $60 or $55 I think we flirt with a buck.

So $1 before $2 in my honest analysis.

[Traderx11]

Terrible analysis.. not factual or true.  $400 mil owed, they will generate $250 FCF at $55.  Also, is it 6 months from now? Yes, BTE will get there with current oil prices.  Why are you even here..

[sergio2go]

I have been reading your comments and your endless complaints regarding your major lost with Baytex. It is clear that you don't have any faith with regard to the very possible recovery of this stock.Then why are you waisting  your time ( and every body else on this stockhouse) kicking a dead dog. Take your lost and move on. It will be a relieve for you and the rest of us.

[Unlucky13]

I am here to try to recoup $300000 in losses on this dog.  5 years ago I was like everyone I else and was convinced this going to the moon.   That was until my investment sunk 99 percent and I lost $300000.   I think my analysis is very astute,  please suggest what you think to her share price will be if oil averages $55 this year.  I say $1.  I need this to go up

[sergio2go]

I can understand your goal. It is a legitamate hope but as for the bashing, i'm not so sure.

[IndianSparrow]

You mention $5 is your breakeven. Then you say you lost 99% of your investment here. Let's see: 99% of $5 = $4.95 Market Value at 99% loss = 5 cents per share. Current Market Price: $1.50 Now, if your cost was $50 per share, then it will be closer to 99%. Either that, or you are just a P.O.S.

[Unlucky13]

My original investment was $50 a share and I lost 99 percent of that amount.  I am down $300000 at $1.50 and averaged down here but I still need $3.50 in upside to break even.  So yes my investment is down some 97 percent still.  I need a 300 percent return here and some change to break even.

[sergio2go]

Hey Unlucky!  How many shares did you bought back to break-even?

[sergio2go]

And at what price i may add?

[Unlucky13]

I have about 80000 shares now after averging down, need about $5 to pay off my debts and break even.  $300000 in debt.  Still have a long way to go.  Before I needed double digits to break even.  Honestly I don't think we see $2 this year, just being realistic.  Maybe in 2022 if the oil price keeps climbing the larger market takes notice.  Willing to lose it all

[Tornada]

The "analysis" of an investor who rides a stock from the top to the bottom counts for little. Your motives for loitering here and bashing this company are suspect. For those of us who bought in the lows the performance has been more than adequate. I dont need a to the Moon day. I have been very happy with the 6 to 10 per cent up days. Nothing goes up everyday and I am happy to see the

[Unlucky13]

You just proved investing is competitive and all about selfishness and timing.  You could gauge a flying duck about it losing 99 percent of it's value because you bought at 28 cents but management absolutely destroyed shareholder value and wiped out thousands of investors so of course there is bitterness.  I didn't set a stop loss and am a gambler and couldn't let go when it

[sergio2go]

Bashing on Baytex all day long won't hepl your situation. For your sake, i hope you have other asset. If it's not the case it would mean that you are a very poor welth manager.

[OnionKing]

Hi Unlucky, I feel your pain I do. I just think being positive is a better attitude as things are moving in the right direction. This is very capable of $5 by years end, and I think you know it. We will need a lot of help, personally I think we won't and we hit $5 in 2022 mid year.  BTE can move with the right WTI price and right management. We are so under valued its silly.. TVE has a

[Tornada]

So you averaged down because you thought the stock could still recover and you could recoup. Nothing wrong with that. So how about you join the party and leave the negativity at the door. It serves no one. We all do our own due diligence. And should it hit 5 bucks down the road somewhere, we will be happy for you.

[Unlucky13]

I averaged down because it will never get to $50 or $20 or even $10.  I borrowed money to average down here and am willing to lose it all.  I have to, because double digits is so unrealistic.  Yes, the metrics have improved but BTE has made me depressed waiting for a turnaround.  I can't average down anymore and just want out and my money back.  Selling at $2

[TrendSwapper]

Thanks for holding on. Now, stop being such a facking azzhole!