Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

BSW when will you do estimate of FCF for 2nd quarter

[fortunefavorsus]

At these oil and gas prices could we see 250 million.  I guess it all depends on how much cap ex they spend.  I am fine if they are spending heavy in Clearwater as those are paying off BIG and quick now.

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Q2 WTI pricing ends in 19 days. At that point will start crunching numbers.  That said a couple things to consider.... 1. Track the growth in AFF Q3-21 $198  Q4-21 $215 Q1-22 $280 Q2-22 $TBD 2. AFF in Q1 was $280M/ Capex $154M...difference FCF 3. Capex in Q2 is typically the lowest due to spring breakup etc. 4. They are guiding 450-500M in capex...lets pick the midpoint 475m 5. With

[fortunefavorsus]

So just using first quarter pricing FCF should rise to $185 million based on $65 million less cap ex for 2nd.  For second quarter oil prices could be $22+ higher than first.  According to Baytex presentation for every $1 increase in WTI they generate $15 million in annual revenue including hedges.  So that means as much as $330 million more in annual revenue  {$22 X 15million}

[fortunefavorsus]

BSW using your numbers I see there could be $24 increase in WTI pricing instead of $22.  So the $267.5 ballpark FCF could rise even more.  Going through this exercise I think I have even made myself more bullish particuarly when you factor in Clearwater results and rising gas prices. 

[BayStreetWolfTO]

Fortune, you can also review the historical "spot" rates for Q1vQ2 (if you want to be more conservative...versus futures "settlement" https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RWTCD.htm Yes Capex is the big question mark. I am going with historical trend. Note I have not seen any Clearwater or Duvernay spuds in Q2 so for me $65M capex "seems" reasonable. To close....yes