Hello all,
Wanted to create some discussion surrounding my *wishful thinking* PT of $10, and avenues/catalysts that would propel CHR in this direction. I am willing to hold my ~30k shares until then.
Given the US is miles ahead of Canada from a vaccination standpoint, comparing timelines would be inaccurate - but it's noteworthy to state that most if not all US airlines are about back to pre covid SP levels. Keep in mind that this isn't a reflection of financials, as they have been poor throughout, but moreso from a forward looking travel influx sentinement/post covid environment outlook.
Canada surely is behind, but one can assume we will get there at one point (timeframe arguable - are we 6-12 mo behind the US? etc.) just with this 'logic' applied, at some point in the near future CHR should return to $7-8 ranges.
Given the CPA renegotiation is behind us - and my takeaway from that is short term pain of reduction of revenues, for longer term gains passed 2025, and Chorus being ACs sole regional provider now. Whether the reduced short term revenue trade offs are net positive or not is arguable, but provides a sense of stability.
With that said, are the only missing parts for my SP PT is for CAC to take off, as was CHR's plans to grow this segment of the business pre covid? My view is that this is the "unknown" that can be a wildcard in future valuation. If CHR gets these deferred revenues from regional leases under control, and increases their contracts this Sid elf the business can be a bit more predictable and valued higher.
Would like to hear any nuanced thoughts on this PT - if it viable, and if so, by when?
-C