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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

TSX:CXR.R - Post Discussion

Concordia Healthcare Corp. > Bought more to-day after Scotia re-read.....
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Post by happyretirement on Mar 17, 2016 11:46am

Bought more to-day after Scotia re-read.....

We recently visited CXRX's AMCo operations in London and left with a better
understanding of the company's opportunity outside the U.S.
 
On this side of the Atlantic, AMCo was a relatively unknown private UK specialty
pharmaceutical company before CXRX acquired it in September 2015 for ~$3.5
billion. As a result, its operations, which now account for ~60% of CXRX's total
business, have been somewhat of a black box for investors as: (i) the UK market
is unique and likely underappreciated, (ii) AMCo focuses on leveraging nuances
in the UK market to its advantage, (iii) there is limited historical financial
data, and iv) third-party data to track the underlying growth are difficult to
obtain.
 
After spending time with management discussing the market dynamics at work
within the UK system, we believe AMCo is well positioned to continue to grow its
business using a number of strategies available to it, including: developing new
products, selectively promoting neglected brands, and optimizing price where
appropriate. Furthermore, we left our meetings feeling that the management team
in place at AMCo has a deep understanding of the market, the business, and the
opportunities that are available going forward.
 
We believe Concordia's shares will likely trade higher as the market becomes
more comfortable with the growth potential of AMCo, which should become apparent as the company reports results over the next 3-4 months. As a result, we
maintain our $75 price target, Sector Outperform.
Comment by CCK on Mar 17, 2016 12:32pm
happyretirement, what is the date of that Scotia report? I'm curious how recent the report is and how recent their visit with management was. Thanks.
Comment by Qh1234 on Mar 17, 2016 2:22pm
Scotia's most recent update was done in 9 Feb 2016. :(
Comment by DeathPool on Mar 17, 2016 2:43pm
A word of caution on analyst reports.   48% of analysts on still had a BUY rating on Valeant on the morning that it saw 50% of its equity evaporate.  The market will not be forgiving if CXR misses or if expenses relating to the acquisition are over which it guided.   I'm sure that the investors who bought into Valeant over the last few months are not so thankful for all the ...more  
Comment by happyretirement on Mar 17, 2016 3:07pm
Sorry for the Feb. 9th report - this is a March 17th update using US Dollars.  Currency risk and sector main reason for reduce in target. Implications Our forecast calls for Q4/15E revenue of $201 million and adjusted EBITDA of $121 million. Consensus estimates are $190 million and $120 million, respectively. We expect Q4 Legacy revenue of $85.2 million, AMCo revenue of $112.7 ...more  
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