Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R

WOW scripts update RBCA

[fundtrader]

November 4, 2016 Concordia International Corp. Script Tracker - Week Ended Oct 28th Our view: Given recent U.S. product and pricing volatility, we believe it is important to provide investors with a weekly in-depth view of script trends. Key points: Plaquenil AG TRx up 0.9% WoW, in-line with broader market. Plaquenil AG (Prasco) TRx were up 0.9% WoW vs. down 0.1% the prior week. Total hydroxychloroquine (plaquenil market) TRxs were up 1.0% WoW and Prasco's market share (Concordia AG) currently sits at 38.4%, flat WoW. We have outlined market share trends in Exhibit 2. As previously noted, we believe Plaquenil AG pricing decreased by ~40% in early Q3 due to the Actavis generic (1.7% market share).
Lanoxin AG TRx up 4.4% WoW. Par's (AG) market share was up to 33.2% from 32.1% last week and TRx increased 4.4% WoW vs. a 1.2% increase last week. The broader market saw TRx up 1.1% WoW. We have outlined Lanoxin/Digoxin market trends in Exhibit 3.
Donnatal TRx up 0.4% WoW. As previously noted, we have been monitoring the market share of several IBS drugs that target both IBS-C and IBS-D, due to the launch of Allergan's Viberzi in December (TRx up 2.3% WoW). While Donnatal saw a slow decline in scripts between January and August, we believe market share is beginning to stabilize but note that we anticipate week-to-week volatility. Donnatal NRx were down 4.1% WoW vs. up 5.3% the prior week and TRx were up 0.4% WoW vs. up 0.6% the prior week. Donnatal's current market share (TRx) is 1.7%. Exhibit 5 shows Donnatal trends.
No Likely Impact on CXRX relating to Lanoxin/digoxin investigation. Yesterday, Bloomberg wrote a story indicating that the US DoJ was moving toward potential changes against various generic manufacturers by year-end. One of the drugs included in the investigation was Lanoxin/ digoxin. Through its purchase of Covis, CXRX owns the rights to Lanoxin and the authorized generic, digoxin (distributed by Par – part of Endo Pharmaceuticals). In CXRX’s short form prospectus dated March 23, 2015, the company noted the following, “On December 5, 2014, Covis received a subpoena from the US [DoJ], Antitrust Division, requesting certain documents relating to Lanoxin®. Covis is unable to assess potential outcomes of the investigation at this time. Under the terms of the Covis Purchase Agreement, Covis retained all pre-closing liabilities with respect to the Covis Portfolio, including any liability associated with any pending litigation, regulatory or other legal investigation.” The Covis purchase agreement summarizes the indemnification in section 8.1/ Specified Retained Liability/Schedule 1.1(h). There may be a cap of $120MM on the covered amount according to CXRX but we believe this would be more than sufficient to cover any fines etc levied against Covis and due by the owners under the indemnification agreement.

[Themandyman]

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[Lumberfeverlong]

These script numbers look good again.  The US business does not seem to be collapsing as everyone was expecting.  I honestly think that Q3 and Q4 combined should be decent and set the stage for a recovery in 2017.

[cg16]

Scotia is forecasting $58m US Sales for Q3. down from $77.5m in Q2.