RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:NCIB tapped out...I think the number one factor for performance is soft-handed retail reacting to the price action, which creates a massive opportunity for investors with patience and liquidity (which, as you point out, seem in short supply these days). I continue to underestimate the retail proclivity to trade at exactly the wrong times. I am aware of hedge funds that screen for the DHT-style selloff and bounce in order to short the bounce. I have DCA'd hard as the bounce has traded away. I expect the next move up to be more durable as the soft hands yield to long-term investors and value hunters.
On your points:
A. True to a degree, but I see Gary as an old hand, the CIO as the guy who's actually been doing the deals, the existing investment pipeline and process as unaffected, the mgmt co CEO as a smart guy, and I am sceptical that the ousted guy was some sort of magic man whose skillset cannot be replicated (and perhaps improved on) in relatively short order.
B. Yep, people are rotating into stocks that will benefit from lower rates but expected to protect against recession. Given DHT's portfolio duration and the recession-proof nature of drug royalties, it would undoubtedly have been on the list of companies to buy absent the CEO debacle. What would it be trading at without the goof?
C. Dunno about this. Tons of room in NCIB, just out of room in AUPP with dealer. IMHO they can wind that back up at any time (but perhaps there are steps like board approval and perhaps they're fine with the stock slide for the moment, both facilitating cheaper buybacks and a later run-up to an important date such as Q3 end or earnings call).
Analysts asked Gary about the future buyback pace on the Q2 call and he waffled, saying something about weighing the benefit of buying the existing NPV at a discount versus capital needs for the pipeline. Not sure about that at today's prices, Gary! They bought 207k units at USD10.52 (say CAD14.20) in H1 and then bought at daily max in July at USD8.72 (CAD11.77ish) after the fraud annoucement, so it seems a massive win buying today in the $11.30 range.
Hopefully we can get to the point that the technicals turn and we get a nice strong move up. I am also open to the idea that something good can fall from the sky -- the investment bankers knocking on Gary's door might show up with a bidder, as an example. I believe that DRI used to fund through insurance cos and such (who like the returns, duration and low correlation to other asset classes), and it is not impossible for a very-welcome trading halt to hit our screens. Could the Future Shop crew try to take it private? Hmmm. One can dream.
In summary, we're through the bad news, we can't be far from the price floor, and there is a lot to be optimistic about. At some point, this train is going to leave the station. I'm happy to sit on the train to not miss my connection at $15.
Good luck to all longs!
Sonoffergus out.