TickerTwit wrote: A number of you told me I had no idea what I was talking about when I last posted on this topic. Feel free to do so again.
For a time I did the Air Miles data processing for one of their larger partners. At the same time I was involved in competitive analysis of the unwinding Canadian long-distance market and was able to see the ease with which resellers and rebillers were entering that market -- this is pertinent to Air Miles.
The good news here, if I can call it that, is that the Air Miles royalty deterioration will merely injure DIV rather than kill it. Shareholders will suffer and management will not.
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hawk35 wrote:
I think the Air Miles program will be flat going forward ...
It will not be flat. It's been dying for years. Any company with its own billing system (rather than 3rd party) can set up a rewards program and not have to give Air Miles a cut of it. This is the trend we're seeing now, it will not stop, and the demise of Air Miles will only pick up speed as the ability to retain partners diminishes.
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hawk35 wrote:
...unless DIV can figure out a way to reposition it and make it more attractive.
DIV has no meaningful ability to do this. It's in the hands of Air Miles, and it's a tough sell to potential partners who can do rewards themselves (provided they're willing to invest in the setup of it and take on the risk-to-brand of their new program running into trouble -- this inertial aspect is the only reason Air Miles isn't out of business already).
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hawk35 wrote:
But it is difficult to change the public's perception of the program once a negitive bias has set in.
The public isn't being consulted here. Rexall didn't ask my opinion, nor did Staples. They simply decided they had the tools in-house and would no longer be giving a cut to Air Miles.
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hawk35 wrote:
Anyway it should not be a huge hit to DIV.
Depends on what you consider "huge", but as I stated above, it won't kill DIV's ability to pay executive salaries (which take priority over dividends).
Air Miles is the only royalty purchase by DIV that ever concerned me.