Post by
mercedesman on Sep 13, 2021 10:21am
The Pathway to $ 9 !?
Using new Sept Presentation facts and figures....
Anticipated Tigris Enrollment - re-iterated Q 4 2021 !
Note: this is associated with the next baxter milestone Payment (another cash infustion by the Multi-billion $ Distribution partner)
Targeteded Market penetration thru partnership with Baxter (35-45%) (per presentaiton)
Lets use 40% (the midpoint)
EBITDA (EAA & PMX based on $ 7500/column market price - per presentation)
197.50 USD (midpoint of 35% $ 173M and 45% $ 222M USD EBITDA's are per presentation))
fully diluted pro-forma # shares 275M (per presentation)
EBITDA multiple (say 10X - highly conservative for an FDA approvd medical device co., with limited competition in a given space, and high barriers to entry)
Estimated MC based on EBITDA multiple = $ 197M USD X 10 = $ 1,975M
Per share valuation estimate:
$ 7.18 USD (= $1,975M / 275M shares)
or approx.
$ 9 CAD (using todays FX rates). PMX & EAA (NA) only. note: EAA = worldwide. Zero valuation for Dialco.
Note...(1) no discount factor used, (2) if you thought PMX had a 3.6% chance of success in the "confirmatiory" Phase 3B Trial, you might value it at say $ 0.33 today (3.6% x $ 9). i.e. assumes a 96.4% likellihood of valuation of $ 0, and a 3.6% likelihood of $ 9.
Personally I prefer to use a 50-60% likelihood of success, given societal need for a new Sepsis solution, stated early results, non culturable bacteria subgroup, other RWE, CV-19 impact on Sepsis stats, nature of the Trial (Bayesian, Open Label, 2:1), Kellum's commitment to the co., etc.
Please critique my math at your leisure.
MM