Spectral Medical Inc T.EDT

The Pathway to $ 9 !? - Corrected

[mercedesman]

Apologies (one key point corrected, clarificaitons & spelling). No change to targets.

Using new Sept Presentation facts and figures....


Anticipated Tigris Interim Enrollment - re-iterated (in the presentation) as   Q4 2021 !

Note: this is associated with the next Baxter milestone Payment (another cash infusion by the multi-billion $ Distribution partner)


Targeteded Market penetration thru partnership with Baxter (35-45%) (per presentation)

Let's use 40% (the midpoint)

EBITDA (EAA & PMX based on $ 7500/column market price - per presentation)

$197.50M USD  (midpoint of 35%  $ 173M and 45%  $ 222M USD  -  EBITDA's are per presentation)

(Note: EBITDA's seem to use a 120k potential patient target, yet an updated "competitor" comparison seems to suggest 150k potential patient market. perhaps allowing for growth in Sepsis and Covid affect on # Sepsis cases?)  Needless to say, if factored into EBITDA calcs, this could represent another 25% upside to the share price (PMX portion only)?

fully diluted pro-forma # shares 275M (per presentation)

EBITDA multiple (say 10X - highly conservative for an FDA approved medical device co., with limited competition in a given space, and high barriers to entry)

Estimated MC based on EBITDA multiple = $ 197M USD X 10 = $ 1,975M

Per share valuation estimate:

$ 7.18 USD  (= $1,975M / 275M shares)

or approx.

$ 9 CAD (using todays FX rates).   PMX & EAA (NA) only.  note: EAA is really worldwide and can/should be used ww (incl. in USA) to triage patients with Sepsis symptooms, to eliminate possibiltiy of endotoxemia (not factored into the presentation, that I can see) Zero valuation for Dialco.


Note...(1) no discount factor used, (2) if you thought PMX had a 3.6% chance of success in the "confirmatory" Phase 3B Trial, you might value it at say $ 0.33 today   (3.6% x $ 9).  i.e. this assumes a 96.4% likellihood of a future valuation of $ 0, and a 3.6% likelihood of $ 9 valuation.  (of course this also assumes an efficieint market and promotion - neither of which seems to be very evident)

Personally, I prefer to use a 50-60% likelihood of success, given societal need for a new Sepsis solution, stated early results, Meta-analyses of various PMX studies/Trials over 2 decades, non culturable bacteria subgroup, other new RWE, likely CV-19 impact on go forward Sepsis stats, nature of  the Trial (Bayesian, Open Label, 2:1), Kellum's commitment to the co., etc.

Please critique my math at your leisure.

MM

[Accountprince]

Hi MM: As always your calculations are spot on.  Since no value ascribed to Dialco and assuming it has about the same value as PMX you're using a discount factor of 50% for both.  Conservative given the advanced stages for both PMX and Dialco.  I've always had a conservative estimate of $8 to $10 per share for Spectral so your $9 per share value is exactly the midpoint

[mercedesman]

Agreed AP. The fact that they are mentioning "senior US Listing" more frequently now, suggests that perhaps, just maybe, we are getting closer to some real promotional efforts going forward. While they may removed this as a "catalyst" , several Cdn Biotechs that I have been involved with, were able to see doubles in their share prices simply based on a formally announced

[SouthernTierTom]

Looks like the "market" is still cautious on the advancements and not that impressed with a top .1%-tile finish....the market is indeed a pickled mistre$$ Further to fancy car-boy's musing around cytokines and endotoxin, please see this oldie but goodie from our Canadien expert on endotoxin..... Five Questions for Dr. Paul Walker of Spectral Diagnostics MAY 17TH, 2012 

[mercedesman]

Walker was obviiously ahead of his time ...look at what this 2021 Study showed ! Endotoxin adsorption therapy by polymyxin B-immobilized fiber column direct hemoperfusion (PMX-DHP) has been used for the treatment of septic shock patients. Endotoxin, an outer membrane component of Gram-negative bacteria, plays an important role in the pathogenesis of septic shock. Endotoxin triggers a signaling

[BayStreetWild]

Hey did you get your pretend 34 cent bid filled? seemed like more than enough to go around today. See if you can pretend to put more at a lower price. Maybe that will fill too while you STT and AP pretend you're different people circle jaying it. Must feel weird complimenting yourself from different aliases pretending you're buying the stock and throwing out made up price targets. 

[mercedesman]

WildBS thanx for asking. I did get my .34's and  some more .33's today as a matter of fact. Were any of those that I scooped up yours, by chance? I didn't think so.  Don't really care if you think they are fictitious fills. Some anonymous types felt the need to relieve themselves ( of shares).  I felt compelled to buy more. Simple.  Call me a sucker for a

[BayStreetWild]

I like your fantasy stories. Let's hear some more. I find it hard to believe those are misprints it's more likely that they are promises that are yet to be broken. Par for the course. As we come closer to the date... they'll move the goalposts. Over and over and over.

[mercedesman]

The $ 24 Billion dollar market potential (ie using HP as a solution for Sepsis) as suggested by Joyce, got me thinking about out $ 1.5B target market for PMX (as suggested by Spectral's last Investor Prezzie - which has since replaced with a "Coming Soon" message). What should our target SP target be based on Spectral's very modest targets for PMX ($ 1.5B) and its potential use

[Revten]

My Thoughts On EDT New Target Because Of The Impact Of COVID19.    Based on a Higher End Overall Market Potential of $15 to 24 Billion in The Dialysis and Sepsis Market, probably due to the COVID 19 Pandemic, our Share Price would have to be Multiplied by between 10 to 16 Times the $9.00 Conservative Estimate on PMX ONLY!  That would take us to a Share Price of Between $90.00

[Revten]

The ROARING 20's are Over! I know it felt ugly to say the least! We will look back on them and say " what was I thinking?? And why didn't I Buy more?? Or I wish I could have bought more, as most of us were probably tapped out....it's ok! It's only going to get better from here. The 30's will be over just as quickly, as I think Buyers are going to wake up when they realize