Post by Clemxb7on Jan 06, 2025 8:53pm
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Post# 36391615
I think Niger does not like France thats for sure
I think Niger does not like France thats for sureI totally agree this one is a bit of dice shoot though the odds may be decent. The big "if" is the loan? If it is approved then the lenders are satisfied they are not just throwing the money down the john so it would be a vote of confidence.
Orano looks toast as long as the current Government rules. The current power in Niger seems to really resent the French.Thats a known. Its bad blood based on history.
However can Niger run those mines if France is completely kicked out? One common problem among countries that have nationalized resource industries is when they kick the colonializer out they also kick out the expertise and they end up with a pile of junk that doesn't work and a bunch of powerful countries that are not happy.
Global does not have the baggage of being a "colonializer". They bring expertise and are being a good citizen. They are providing jobs and are training people in technical skills. If you look at the pictures it isn’t a two bit operation and looks like it being done to first world standards.
According to Google the US Embassy still has a staff of 600 in Niger. I would think it is a bipartisan issue that Niger keep orientated west. So definitely pressure from Russia though also the US.
There is friction though also a need to co-operate with ECOWAS who definitely don't want Niger turning Russian. Niger is land-locked and that does weaken their hand.
Right now this one is definitely a gamble with what might be not bad odds. I am definitely a buyer of any news of the loan approval though. It might not even gap up that much right at first if the loan does go through even though GLO is suddendly worth a lot more than present IMO if that happens.