RBCTheir upside scenario target is $48.00. GLTA
February 27, 2026
Jamieson Wellness Inc.
Wellness Trends Still in Good Health
Our view: Solid Q4/25 results and 2026 guidance were largely in line with
our forecast notwithstanding modestly lower adjusted EBITDA margins due
to geographic mix. With 2026 revenue guidance implying ~$915MM at the
midpoint, we believe the company remains on a clear trajectory towards
achieving its $1B+ revenue target. Following estimate revisions, our $44
price target is unchanged.
Key points:
• Capitalizing on structural health and wellness tailwinds. With strong
brand equity and category dominance in Canada (~40% household
penetration), Jamieson Wellness is well positioned to benefit from
structural tailwinds for VMS including aging populations in core markets,
increased adoption by younger demographics, higher disposable
incomes in emerging markets and a growing focus by consumers
on preventive healthcare. Against this backdrop, we believe current
valuation levels (11.8x FTM EV/EBITDA versus a long-term average of
~14.0x) represent an attractive accumulation opportunity given solid
execution, a healthy innovation pipeline, steady domestic consumption
and growing momentum in both the U.S. and China.
• No surprises from 2026 guidance. 2026 guidance including revenue
growth of +9.0% to +13.7% YoY and adjusted EBITDA growth of +9.0% to
+13.4% (with margins flat YoY) was largely in line with our forecast and
consistent with the previously provided medium-term outlook. Drilling
down into 2026 guidance, management indicated that: (i) revenue
growth of +20%-30% YoY for China (on the back of +56% growth in 2025)
reflects ongoing momentum as performance marketing drives brand
awareness and conversion rate improvements (in 2025, trial conversion
rates increased +57% while repeat buyer conversion rates increased
+81%); (ii) revenue growth of +14%-19% for the U.S. (in USD) will be
driven by accelerating e-commerce growth and innovation (with a more
steady cadence to launches in 2026 versus 2025); (iii) revenue growth
of +4%-6% for Canada does not assume any pricing actions and reflects
healthy underlying consumption trends (category consumption was mid-
single digits for both dollars and units in Q4/25) supported by structural
tailwinds and innovation; and (iv) despite underlying margin expansion
in all segments of the business, consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins
are expected to be flat in 2026 reflecting geographic mix with accelerated
growth in China alongside a recovery in Strategic Partners (with both
having lower margin levels). Our 2026 forecast factors in revenue and
adjusted EBITDA growth of +11.2% and +11.6%, respectively.
• Other notables from the quarter. (i) following a reduction in working
capital in Q4/25, management expects to be more active with share
repurchases in H2/26; (ii) building on the success in China to-date, the
company is beginning to assess incremental expansion opportunities in
Asia; and (iii) the company is actively looking at acquisition opportunities,
focusing on scaled quality brands in the U.S. with >$100MM in annual
revenues and digital expertise.