TDHave a $46.00 target. Just picked up a few more below $38.00 which seems like a bargain for the long term. GLTA Q4/25 First Look: Strong Finish To The Year,
2026 Outlook Very Attainable
THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
Marketing and innovation efforts continue to drive significant growth in each of JWEL's markets. We are expecting more of the same in 2026 driven by: (1) JWEL's China segment
where it is outpacing the market by 4x, (2) a strong innovation pipeline at youtheory, and (3) supported by a stable Canadian business, albeit mature, but still generating MSD% growth.
JWEL remains our top small cap pick.
Impact: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
Our "slightly positive" impact statement reflects results that were in line, albeit with strong growth across each of JWEL's operating segments. Despite the quiet consistency, which we
still don't think the market appreciates, 2026 should be more of the same. JWEL reported Q4/25 adj. EBITDA of $67.6mm, in line with TD Cowen/consensus of $67.4mm.
Continued success in Canada. Q4 domestic sales were +5.5% y/y driven by quality-focused marketing campaigns (drove leadership in its magnesium product) and innovation. Sleep, energy, stress, and flu immunity continue to be leading POS categories.
youtheory grew more than 20% y/y. JWEL continues to leverage its innovative DNA to capitalize on numerous consumer trends. Management expects a more evenly planned innovation cycle in 2026 (i.e. not as back-half weighted as 2025).
China investments are yielding strong results. Sales were up ~44% y/y and the segment outpaced the broader VMS market by ~4X driven by material increases in brand awareness
(i.e. brand awareness to trial conversion rates were +57%), trial, and consumer conversion to regular buyers (i.e trial to regular buyer conversion rates were +81%). JWEL reported increased
brand strength across both its digital (i.e. e-commerce) and store (i.e. retail and club, which experienced DD% POS growth) channels.
Solid 2026 outlook comprised of:
Revenue: $895mm-$935mm in revenue (+9.0%-13.7%) vs cons/TD Cowen of $905mm/ $904mm
Canada: $387.0mm - $395.0mm (+4% - 6%)
youtheory: $162.0mm - $170.0mm (+14% - 19%)
China: $171.0mm - $186.0mm (+20% - 30%)
International: $67.0mm - $71.0mm (+10% - 15%)
Strategic partners $105.0mm - $115.0mm (+10% - 20%)
Adj. EBITDA: $174mm-$181mm (+9.0% - 13.4%) vs cons/TD Cowen of $182mm/$184mm
Targeting scaled, quality brands for M&A. Management noted that its focus for acquisition targets is primarily on the U.S. market (~$100mm+ in size).