Raymond James Pointing to potential near-term political and economic uncertainty, Raymond James analyst Brad Sturges thinks the total return performance for Canada’s real estate investment trust sector is likely to be more weight to the second half of the year.
“We forecast average 2025E total returns in the 20-25-per-cent range, reflecting an average distribution yield of 5 per cent, average 2025E AFFO/unit growth of 6 per cent year-over-year, and a potential average P/AFFO multiple recovery in the 2-3 times range (equal an average unit price appreciation of 10-15 per cent),” he said.
After 2024 marked the third consecutive year of the underperformance for the sector, which is the longest steak in the last 25 years, Mr. Sturges thinks “defensive investment attributes, such as strong balance sheet metrics, increased NCIB and non-core asset sale activity, and the potential to generate above-average 2025E AFFO/unit growth year-over-year could be key factors for relative outperformance in 2025.”
“Looking ahead to this year, we expect that Canadian REIT/REOCs that offer both defensive investment attributes such as high credit-quality rental income streams and strong and/or improving balance sheet metrics, combined with the potential to generate above-average 2025E AFFO/unit growth could be key factors in delivering above-average total returns in 2025,” he said. “We also expect that event-driven strategic initiatives such as increased unit repurchases through active NCIB programs, and ongoing capital recycling efforts may augment total return performance in 2025. We are generally forecasting very modest refinancing headwinds for the majority of covered Canadian REIT/REOCs. Overall, we forecast NexLiving (up 22 per cent year-over-year), StorageVault (up 13 per cent YoY), Granite (up 12 per cent), and Flagship (up 11 per cent YoY) to generate above-average 2025E AFFO/unit growth YoY.
“Our preferred Canadian property sector rankings include: 1) retail shopping centres; 2) Canadian multifamily rental (MFR); 3) international residential; 4) industrial; 5) storage; and 6) office. ... Our Strong Buy rated stocks include Crombie, Killam, Granite, and Flagship. We also highlight Outperform rated stocks Automotive Properties (APR), Boardwalk, CAPREIT, Choice Properties (Choice), ERES, First Capital, and Primaris as preferred stocks.”
In a report released Monday, Mr. Sturges trimmed his targets for many of the REITs in his coverage universe, noting: “Mainly reflecting the net of: changes in forecasted SP-NOI growth assumptions; F/X assumption changes; 4Q24 NCIB activity; and recently announced and completed transaction activity, we are slightly decreasing our FFO/unit and AFFO/unit estimates by 1 per cent on average across our Canadian REIT/REOC coverage universe. Further, based on the negative total return performance to finish last year on a relatively lower note due to recent Canadian foreign immigration policy changes, and due to near-term Canadian economic uncertainty surrounding the potential introduction of U.S. tariffs by the incoming Trump Administration, we are broadly decreasing our price targets for Canadian REIT/REOCs under research coverage by 5 per cent on average, or equal to an 1 times 2025E AFFO multiple turn.”