LAKE SHORE GOLD CORP 6.25 PCT DEBS T.LSG.DB

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[goldclrglasses]

To the list of those now officially hoping for a buy out. I'm out of patience waiting for gold to recover, which is the only thing that is going to drive the share price higher. That could take years. If we were lucky enough to get $1.50, I'd tender. I'm sure I'm the minority, but enough is enough.

[bigdaddycash]

Agreed, due to current market conditions, I believe LSG could easily be "stolen" for $1.50 CAD and immediately accrete to the bottom line of any acquirer.  Mgmt could do little to prevent this outcome. gltals.

[rusted1]

with debs at 1.40 it would take at least 1.85 jmho

[bigdaddycash]

How do you arrive at $1.85?  Is this just a gross-up (of approx 30%) of the $1.40 conv price? The debs convert to approx 75MM shares (at $1.40) whereas there are currently 422MM shares outstanding (would be approx 496MM shares incl conv debs but not including exec options and such).   Do the debs have special covenants that could prevent buyout below a desired price?   How would

[rusted1]

theres also the fnr stake that was tied to the royalty

[bigdaddycash]

correct.  I did not factor this in.  A WAG calc at 200K oz/yr and at current spot gold and cost per oz (net return $700-800 /oz) I calc the NPV of this to be 35 to 50 MM (hit to enterpise value) and WACC of 7-10%, e.g. reduce the price acquiring enity would be willing to pay by 35 to 50  MM.  IMO, very rough calc.  cost approx. 0.07 -  0.10 /share (to current