Comment by ztransforms173on Dec 02, 2024 10:48am
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Post# 36340730
RE:TD
RE:TD- these INVESTORS are REAL DUMMIES !
- you THINK that MEG would PURPOSELY DEGRADE PRODUCTION when they SPEND an ENORMOUS amount of TIME & ENGINEERING RESOURCES TO OPTIMIZE MAXIMUM BOP with the MINIMUM of CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT
- the ONLY REASON that the LARGE Q2/2025 TURNAROUND {~ 35 days instead of the 31 days in 2022} has 2,920,000 LOST BOP BARRELS is they NEED the EXTRA DOWNTIME to PASS a 10 YEAR REGULATORY INSPECTION and PERFORM BOP EXPANSION TIE-INS (+25,000 bbls/d) to the THIRD PROCESSING TRAIN and STEAM GENERATING FACILITIES
- so YES, BOP in 2025 will FALL SLIGHTLY DUE to RECORD TURNAROUND DOWNTIME
- HOWEVER, OPERATING MARGINS will RISE (assuming EQUAL AVERAGE WTI PRICING in 2024) due to a NARROWER WTI/WCS PRICE DIFFERENTIAL and ~ 20,000 bbls/d of AWB will be PRICED AT LEAST USD 10 per barrel HIGHER [just a USD 1+ per barrel SHORT of BRENT world pricing] than the AWB price in the US GULF COAST REFINERY COMPLEX {BOTH NET POSITIVES due to TMX OPERATING}
z173