MEG Energy Corp T.MEG

Very pleasantly surprised

[Deckdude]

Oil is down four bucks and MEG is up a few pennies. Awesome.

[Fuzman5902]

Speaking of surprised all energy investors should be aware that oil companies are receiving $5 more on average per barrel in April than they did in Q1. Betting than nothing :)

[Konaboy]

Q1 Average WTI $80.15 Q2 Average WTI $104.85 (so far)

[Fuzman5902]

This is what I'm seeing  Q1 94.45 April 100.86 so far 

[Konaboy]

<> Go check out the BTE board, user BayStreetWolf. Very detailed calculations, taking into consideration contract settlement and front-month pricing (if you have not looked into this model, you need to). Some of his posts point you to his blog, and there are descriptions of exactly how it works.  And he provides a most excellent community service of doing all the calculations for us!

[Fuzman5902]

Ok I'll bite  How much FCF @ $ 80.15

[Konaboy]

Well, let's call this a little fact checking exercise against BSW's methodology.  Calling MEG a pure play bitumen takes a lot of other factors out of the equation (ugh, mixed production would be messy) Using the WCS prices on this site:  https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/oilprice, if we average Dec/Jan/Feb we get ~$66USD/b, multiply by exchange of 1.27, and we get

[Fuzman5902]

Crickets as Expected.

[topdown99]

Geez , the prices drops a few cents and everyone goes underground . At least you aren't holding Shopify or some other over priced tech anchor that is dragging the entire market down , lots of bargans still in O&G 

[Fuzman5902]

Short term share performance doesn't matter anymore when oil is sitting north of 110 $ . If this continues Q2 will be better than expected even with the turnaround. Regards  Fuz

[Konaboy]

If you were poking at me here, Fuz, the original thread was about realized price in the quarter (you escalated to FCF, that's a stretch exercise for me at this point, but I'll give it a go). Confusion on lots of the boards, so as a relative newbie I did my own due diligence and confirmed the whole forward month settlement (revenue realization) model, and it's easy to do with Meg as a

[newcoin]

I hope you're correct. Way past my pay grade. $600M debt floor was supposed to be H2 2023 but I've heard many thoughts that it would be sooner. Under promise and over deliver. If $100 oil holds (and most people can't believe it) then MEG is generational wealth. I believe!

[Konaboy]

I know,the 2H23 thing has been chewing at me all day, guess I need another full read of the report to understand if it is a typo, or if there is a planned big expenditure ... of like $600M. Just don't understand how they could say they will eat $500M in debt in Q2, but then take four quarters to eat another $600M.  Yes, the ratio of buyback to debt changes to 50/50, but at most that

[Fuzman5902]

Q2 average production will be reduced @ least 20,000 barells. This with the increased capex they might & this may be stretching it have upwards of 400M in fcf. for the quarter. Obviously i have no idea what prices may average the next 5-6 months but if prices remain flat the 2nd debt level will probably be hit sometime in Sept. Regards  Fuz

[Fuzman5902]

If memory serves me correctly I stated WTI prices were averaging 94.45 & they were receiving 6 $ more in Apri, nowhere did i mention AWB prices & neither did you. Regards 

[Fuzman5902]

D  53.10 J  65.60 F  79.10 M  94.57   D-F average (exchange rate 1.26) = 83 J-M average (@1.26) = 100 Nothing wrong with your numbers Except  From the Meg Q1 Report (Page 1):   Blend Sales Pricing MEG realized an average AWB blend sales price of US$83.55 per barrel during the first quarter of 2022 compared to US$65.42 per barrel during the fourth quarter