Maple Leaf Foods Inc T.MFI

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Recent analyst reports or revised price targets?

[Defiance2050]

Earnings were according to the majority of analysts a slight miss. Takes some time for newer facilities to stabilize to a normal level of utilization. 

Could it be a rush of people out who were expecting a rapid transaction for the split-off, might be.

However adding a couple quarters for missing out on a potential taxable event is significant. 

Going of the share price and the approximate 25% number of newco as well as the fact management never mentioned what percentage might have been taxed with the initial plan, it could have been priced in as high as $6 a share that could have been taxed (if there was no ability to tax-defer) or approximately 25% of market price. 

For the idea of pork tariffs to Canadian facilities is at this point taking a leap in assumptions. The hypothetical of first USA restrictions being added to the sector and then the leap that MFI's Canadian facilities would be mutually hit. It is unlikely, between COVID restrictions and ASF related issues there many not be enough supply for the China market to reach demand if North America is completely  locked out of the market.

This is a hypothetical of another hypothetical happening. Even assuming a $6 a share valuation to newco even supposing China sales support 15-20% of this value and this is a permanent impairement, a $1 a share impact is significantly smaller than remainco's trading multiple increasing.