All participants in the market run some sort of analysis of risk, reward, and timing, to come up with their own best decisions as to when to enter or exit a stock. Depending on the nature of the entity buying or selling, this matrix will be different. This difference is enhanced when the company is pre-revenue, as Nano currently is.
In the early days of a pre-revenue company, when reality is not yet confirmed, the stock trades on dreams and hopes. This is often a more volatile time, and is typically the realm of "faster" money...retail and traders. It's not to say at all that these dreams and hopes don't have merit. They often can, and do. But other entities, such as true investors right up to Fund buying often waits for more proof. Do they end up paying more for the stock? Absolutely. But to them, that is the price of a more sure bet. And in the case of a possible Unicorn, as Nano shows potential to be, the runway after confirmation and acceptance is still long, as their time-frame is measured in multiple years rather than days, weeks or months. They will certainly make money too.
So the question is, where in this Matrix is Nano?? Some might think they are still only in the "hopes and dreams" category at present. But the buying suggests otherwise. Rather than just retail and traders (both of who are most often at the bottom of actual knowledge about company prospects), there IS in fact some substantial FUND and insider buying ALREADY happening.
Below, I've listed just 6 of the top holders of Nano. 3 listed are Funds, and 3 are insiders. All are SUBSTANTIAL holdings:
| ROBECOSAM AG | 3,000,000 | 2.96 | 20210831 | 0 |
| MATYSEK, PAUL FRANK | 2,344,416 | 2.31 | 20210827 | 0 |
| LANDO, JOHN EDWARD | 1,678,500 | 1.66 | 20210827 | 0 |
| BLONDAL, DANIEL JOHN | 1,395,000 | 1.38 | 20210819 | new |
| GREEN BENEFIT GLOBAL IMPACT FUND | 1,079,655 | 1.07 | 20210930 | 0 |
| SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION FUND | 656,219 | 0.65 | 20210930 | 0 |
Personally, I'm THRILLED with the above 6. Of course insiders have access to knowledge we wouldn't. And these insiders all have very large positions. And then the Fund buying? They too are much higher up the food chain of knowledge than those of us in retail. To see Fund buying happening already is VERY encouraging. It's also worth noting that just these 6 holders hold 10% of all outstanding shares. Of course there are many more significant holders as well. My point here is that these are not loose shares. They are held tightly, and additionally, there appears to be no concern about holding a LOT of shares of a company that currently trades relatively thinly. To my eyes, this is a massive vote of confidence by those who would know. Great to see!
So back to the Matrix question, and where Nano is. I would place them actually slightly beyond the cusp of transitioning from "hopes and dreams" to confirmed reality. For myself, the toughest component, the chemistry is now proven. The only element left is scaling, which is only an engineering issue; An issue I consider to be far far less daunting than the chemistry ever was. This is why I chose my entry point now, with confidence that the engineering component was much more readily acheivable and solveable. Additionally, as Nano scales up production, the learning from previous sized vessels will absolutely provide them with data to anticipate the engineering of new larger vessels. To this end, they aren't reiventing the wheel on each scaling. To the contrary, more and more they will antcipate what the "new wheel" will need from an engineering standpoint, thus accelerating the speed between upscaling phases. Does this warrant buying into the stock now? In my books, absolutely yes. I'm certainly not your typical retail investor, and I'm now very confident that the matrix of risk/reward/timing is squarely in favour of taking a substantial position now.
I've used the analogy of a party to explain the timing component. Let's say the party fully starts at 10pm. I started buying at about 8pm (in hindsight, a little early for my own level of patience). The time now is about 9:30pm. Has the party started yet? No, not yet. But the anticipation is now there, and we are at the beginning of positions being taken by investors. And as with all good parties, there's will be areal push of guests arriving at 10:00pm and a little bit after. They'll certainly have plenty to enjoy too.
So when does this party start? I see the following timeline for Nano:
1) Announcement that Candiac is operational with the new reactors: I would say this will happen in the next 4-6 weeks.
2) Offtake analysis by interested OEM's. They want to confirm two things: Scalaibility and quality. The scalability will have been answered. I would say the quality component (which I don't see as a problem at all but it still has to be independently confirmed) will be confirmed by December.
3) Revenues begin: I would say by January.
4) Additional (large) Government funding and Nasdaq listing: I would suggest by Februrary/March.
Now, EACH AND ALL OF THE ABOVE will come with a SUBSTANTIAL rise in share price. EACH AND ALL OF THE ABOVE will bring in fresh investors who will have had their own risk tolerance satisfied. Yes, they will be paying a lot more for their shares, but that is the price of their "inusrance" so to speak.
Those invested currently (back to the 9:30pm idea), I would say you're about to be strongly rewarded, multiple times over. Of course, you place your own risk/reward/timing matrix to work. You too have to be comfortable. Speaking for myself only, my comfort level with purchasing shares is now FULLY there.
I anticipate this upcoming period for Nano to probably be the most exciting and lucrative phase for shareholders. Will the stock rise further over the coming years as well? I have no doubt it will. But that's the reward for the long term investors, which just doesn't fit my profile. Yes, this first phase as noted above has the potential to be extremely lucrative. But there is every potential for this to also be extremely lucrative for long term investors. Nano stock imho truly appears to have something for every shade of investor.
The only wildcard I see in this whole mix is the buyout potential. There are already numerous car o.e.m's circling around Nano, and it would not be surprising at all to see one of them try and take Nano's technology and call it their own, leaving others on the outside. This of course would be a MASSIVE win for that company that take Nano over. Is there actually a potential for this to happen? Personally, I think there is a VERY high potential. But what will that mean for shareholders?
For the short to medium term crowd, it will be a MASSIVE win. The buying company will have to pay a very large premium to overcome the value of Nano's potential future earnings, and get the shares they need for the takeover to be successful. Then of course a bidding war is also a potential, as other O.E.M's will not want to be the one left using 40 year old technology that is dirty, costly, and slow. Investors operating these shorter timeframes (short term up to medium term) will be hugely rewarded. For the longer term crowd, yes, they'll make money too. But not as much as they would have made had Nano gone it alone. Their time horizon is measured in multi-years investment. So with that, I would say if a buyout were to happen, they might be disappointed. Wealthier for sure, but not as wealthy as their extended investment could have provided them.
It's 9:30pm people. This party is about to start, and you can feel it in the air. The anticipation buying is already starting to come in. Am I looking for the party to really get started? HELL YES!! Just knowing what's coming already has me grinning from ear to ear.
Enjoy.