Thanks for the link, this is interesting for 2023 and exlpains the resent drop..

The top executive of the world’s largest fertilizer company sees a worldwide shortage of agricultural inputs ahead as “export challenges” keep Russia and Belarus supplies from reaching global markets.

Fertilizer prices are falling from the highest levels seen in years as farmers postpone purchases to await lower prices, creating gluts that are upending the market for crop inputs. It’s a reversal from earlier this year when prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threw the world’s crop-nutrient sector into disarray. Still, farmers worldwide will need to restock nutrients after they applied most of their stored product this year. Seitz sees global shortfalls lingering well into next year.

“We believe 2023 is not a demand concerned world, but a supply concerned world,” Seitz said. “There’s not gonna be enough potash to go around.”