Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Baffles Me

[rusty777]

This market continues to baffle me.  Oil is up (at least for now) - OBE had pretty good Q2 report and most of the Canadian Oil companies are is a sea of Red - we just can't seem to catch a break - The Market sure doesn't seem to like the oild sector. (with the exception of the shorts of course)

Jeeesh

GLTA

Rusty

[David02montreal]

same here the bull board got quite no pumpers , there are no applaud for the report 4% down management must be having a high time if cannabis is legal where they are laughing all the way to the bank do they work for shorter for us have a drink or 5 Murphys law tomorrow will be worst more bad

[kavern23]

David I am not sure you read much...but do you understand USA may implement masks and lock down certain states or regions or limit travel....you haven't grasped or read cnn or any news? is this a mystery to you that covid delta variant is a big deal with Biden and USA politcians right now? What do you think this will do to WTI..... I did buy some under 3.65. I made a pile on CJ and YGR

[David02montreal]

K23 Iam in Canada we started later with vaccine because we don't have co. Like Moderna also we don't have as much people that think that this covid is a scam and even not bother to protect with a mask indoors civil liberties da some states open early economy more important. Where are they now. Don't forget I sold at 5.00 .Covid is only 1 aspect you have morons running the co. That'

[kavern23]

If you sold like you claim and dont own any shares...then why are you here? Either short OBE or I guess you expend energy trolling as you can buy or short? You are on ignore as I am not clutter board up posting nosense with you. You do need to stop with the recational drugs...frying your mind bro quote=David02montreal] K23 Iam in Canada we started later with vaccine because we don't have

[David02montreal]

2 on this board for ignoring not so bad if the rest still hear the word at over 5% down who will be on ignore

[kavern23]

David...my other holding is Cardinal energy...it is up 6.10% today. Are you in that? No....you are not. David you are too busy looking stupid posting on here instead of getting that 6.10% David you need to spend less time being a smart a&& and sitting with a finger up your a&&.

[David02montreal]

no I went to Costco I thought you put me on ignore all of 10 seconds hun love to be a && meme stock BB the volume is good and when the shorter bring it down then I buy U know my 3 to 4 percent every 2 weeks like clock work don't listen to much about WRONG ADVICE peaches and cream of companies that can't do no wrong. But some people love pain glta .

[sclarda]

kavern23  wrote David...my other holding is Cardinal energy...it is up 6.10% today. Are you in that? No....you are not. David you are too busy looking stupid posting on here instead of getting that 6.10% David you need to spend less time being a smart a&& and sitting with a finger up your a&&. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

[kavern23]

Scardla or whatever alais you are using today....I guess your upset about Surge being mentioned as over valued lol.... Mentally ill is you being back in black and a host of user names and being banned. And how do you not know that it is not even possible to margin YGR...under 2 dollars? You don't know basic rules lol.  Sad you dont know stock under 2 dollars cna not be margined. I am

[sclarda]

kavern23 wrote Scardla or whatever alais you are using today....I guess your upset about Surge being mentioned as over valued lol.... Mentally ill is you being back in black and a host of user names and being banned. And how do you not know that it is not even possible to margin YGR...under 2 dollars? You don't know basic rules lol.  Sad you dont know stock under 2 dollars cna not be

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[schoolinmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[kavern23]

Scardla...CJ and YGR were two of the better ones to go through Covid through. CJ was 2.20 on Feb 2020 and is 3.14 today lol.... You are in a boat load of vermillion energy and vermillion was 20 bucks in Jan 2020. Yeah...you f*cked up...you were better off  in CJ then Vet. Doesnt that suck...reality and real numbers....hahahaha...feels good brother.

[David02montreal]

sclarda thank you bro Kavern23 boasting with his track record, and on the weekend justification of Friday obe quarterly reporting impairment , pricing, Capex,... you name it k23 has an excuse be prudent, when volume is low stock price down get in cheaper not trolling just smart glta

[David02montreal]

K23 wti down +3% net gas under 4 spending Capex a P/E ratio of 145 that's a huge premium . Okay price will have to come down for risk reward starts to look decent the shorter are going to have a field day. Glta

[kavern23]

Where are these short sellers you called for today? I am waiting for it..... Yes stocks are choppy with Covid bro. Don't act like you won an olympic medal cause OBE had some temp morning weakness. Now you are hiding as you need another user name...hahah

[kavern23]

David...did you drink a bottle of vodka this morning before trading?  Sleeping it off right now? Where is this big Obsidian drop you called for today? Not seeing it....are you okay mentally? David did you read Q2 results....

[David02montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[kavern23]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[kavern23]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[David02montreal]

k23 I still own this stock I am happy when it goes up average investors don't know about margin accounts or shorting they don't know about aggressive accounting, or the use of impairment stock option for directors,board members share holders go for the ride not always enjoyable . The difference between you and me other than u are an American and I am canadian I don't put you down put

[David02montreal]

I talked to soon yesterday and you also K23 ARE YOU DRINKING VODKA OR EATING CROWIT GOES BETTER WITH A SINGLE MAT SCOTCH

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[kavern23]

David I am not going to waste that much time responding to verbal diaharra. Let's keep the topic to either OBE or trading energy stocks. I sold some CJ on Tuesday to help cover me on OBE through the delta covid variant skakeness. Lucky it got over 3.35 today on cj sales as well so I could cushion abut more. Like earlier in India with the Delta.  The wave will eventually flatten in USA

[Druchii]

Trouble with OBE is too much fund flows will be chewed up by interest expense from excessive debt

[Hendrick3]

At these prices, they are paying down debt, increasing production and as a result they will see increasing free cash flow. Too much debt for $45 oil but for $70 oil, they are a cash machine. 

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[schoolinmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[schoolinmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Mickey2]

does anyone understand what dave from montreal says?  For the life of me, i cannot comprehend any of his posts.

[schoolinmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[schoolinmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[David01montreal]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Kramerkarma]

you miss understand OBE then. The upside is the snowball of bullish factors. #1 oil gas and NGL prices, 2 lower debt and interest expenses 3 lower and show headway to aro 4 restore production to pre pandemic levels .... this isn't an overnight fix and if it was rosey to begin with we'd be more tve cpg wcp cnq style 1yr price recovery . But we started lower because the snowball of cow plop

[David02montreal]

obe for dummies volatile great for traders take a chance short term glta

[David02montreal]

K23 no posts talk to me I'M friendly no hard feelings hope you made money and sold yesterday and bought at low today if I would be you I would lie and say so it's silent.

[David02montreal]

I will be nice K23 I am going on a limb buying today even it's not 3.50 glta

[David02montreal]

Hay what Happened obe goes down 6.2% and the board is quite nobody's going to cheer us on the price per barrel at 80.00 will be great to bring down debt and so on K23 say something throw a comment, I'll even take an insult I won't get offended hope tomorrow will be a better day glta

[schoolinmoe42]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[David02montreal]

I won't make to much noise yet it's early down 4 % at 10:00 with 34000 shares traded where is K23 MY PRICE 3.50 is coming up . Closing in

[kavern23]

David I see us up 2 cents today: $3.76 +$0.020 (0.53476%) Make some noise lol...oh you need the delta covid to cause problems...I don't.... How are we down 4% today lol...not...

[kavern23]

David...Cardinal Energy is up  $3.26 +$0.120 (3.82%) Obe is up  $3.78 +$0.040 (1.07%) All on a day WTI is getting killed....hmmm...maybe I am in strong stocks....hmmm......you should spend more time reading and listening and less time lecturing people and mocking and

[David02montreal]

K23 your OK If obe goes just a little more down I will jump in 30% lower about from all time high I didn't change truthful you give me that. Always straight I don't like pumpers and shorter I don't like people losing money but to see others that make excuses for bad management are they supposed to make money for shareholders come on are we suckered (never give an even break)

[bullhorn3]

David, I think you are wrong. If you look at the SP of BTE after their quarterly results were announced, the SP went down, even though the quarterly results were not bad. The OBE results were also not bad, but the SP is going down. And the same story is true of almost all the O&G stocks. The slip in SP of OBE has nothing to do with management. And once WTI drops off a cliff, OBE's SP will

[kavern23]

Well yeah...Whitecap is kind of a crown jewel operator and get's the higher valuation metrics and Whitecap released Q2...is down 3%...

[David02montreal]

you need passion, or why bother in anything

[gold_diggers1]

Again, can someone tell me without the impairment reversal,... - what the Net income would have been?? - is OBE still good?? . . Taken from company Q2 NR: . Net income -- Net income of $322.5-million ($4.33 per share) in the second quarter of 2021 benefited from higher FFO and a $311.5-million impairment reversal within the company's Cardium

[kavern23]

It was have been a positive 11M net income. But if you take out some one time expense on shareholder compensation, hedging loss and fee etc and OBE easily can earn 30-40 cents a quarter going forward.... WTI is 74 right now. Q3 will be 40 cents plus earnings...I wouldnt worry too much about it.

[kavern23]

It would have been a positive 11M net income. But if you take out some one time expense on shareholder compensation, hedging loss and fee etc and OBE easily can earn 30-40 cents a quarter going forward.... WTI is 74 right now. Q3 will be 40 cents plus earnings...I wouldnt worry too much about it.

[Hendrick3]

I agree Kavern and accompanying the write up is an offsetting higher depletion cost of about $8 million a quarter by my calculation. Going forward with higher prices less that higher depletion, I think $30 million a quarter in earnings and about $60 million a quarter in FFO or earnings of 40 cents per share and FFO of 80 cents per share. 

[kavern23]

The funny thing is the impairment price decks show higher then 70 expected for 2021 and these companies act like WTI oil is going to be 60 for the year...Obe uses 70.50 for Wti. TVE used over 71..like 71.33. plus 7 months of year have passed. If oil prices though remains above 70.50 that OBE used as the new price deck for 2021 impairment...I think Q3 and Q4 depletion would get a postive bump...no

[kavern23]

Hendrick3 or anyone else...I admitingly know sh*t about the management compensation plans. My question is...does management have any financial incentive in these programs to "sandbag" future estimate numbers? Like do they have incentive for the share price to go up later in 2021 then right now.

[kavern23]

I shouldnt say I know sh*t about them. One of the reason companies use these other programs instead of only stock options...is they help limit dilution vs 100% pure stock options. YGR for example doesnt have these unit programs but on flip side they have 10% of shares outstanding in stock options.... These programs dont push cost out in future. Is what it is.  Does help on the total

[Hendrick3]

The stock compensation plans are usually awarded in the spring and approved at the AGM so there may be an incentive Inplay down the year end results although pretty hard to do. Any projections at this time are very preliminary and if management knew for sure what was happening in the upcoming year, that would be a management team worth compensating well. That said, I do think OBE is sandbagging

[Kramerkarma]

if another company tripples do they not have the same compensation? Or not because they didn't go from as low a base 18-20' ? ... CJ repaid 12M we did 19.3M ... so 1.5x ev should apply?

[Hendrick3]

It's actually a very simple calculation. You take the difference between the shares times period end share price and the strike price and the difference between that calculation and the previous period end price less the strike price. Its effectively a mark to market calculation.  2nd quarter would be big for two reasons, the share price was more than double and they issued a second