Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Q2 2022...Let's do own prelim guidance...

[kavern23]

Based on what they have said so far....i think are designed for a crazy FCF in Q2 2022. Like mind blowing.  No analysts left...they should be looking into this. Key thing is I think I am getting realistic.
I will for sure adjust my expectations as more actuals (oct data) comes out and the company says more.  

Doing backward math (do free cashflow to net debt and you get my number)...according to presentation guidance...2022 reclaimation is 12M.
So using that in model. 
I do need to tighten up my production assumptions alot as I am using flat. 
I actually think the results I have right now don't give enough drilling credit or success.
Q3 is going to have slightly lower CF as in 2022 based on our tie in pace we will have lower light oil in Q3.  I have 400.5 as ending Q4 2021 debt that is different then press release as my assumptions are using current commodity ranges. I am not using 70 lol. 
I do give a lift to Q1 over Q2 on Natural gas strength. I am assuming 80-85 WTI band.

Q2 2022 could be a 80 FCF quite easily.  That could be the time period we "flex" with the bankers in march range and on. Hopefully the bankers see the light sooner.

I use a 145M capex versus 125 in presentation because I think in a 80-85 band (like model assumes)...OBE will want to hammer more with the rig.  125 is what we do at 70 WTI.

I am in the ballpark....

Notes		Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
From my model	CF	102.4	103.2	98	101	404.6
My own	Capex	51	22	37	35	145
From Presentation	Reclaim	4.1	1.9	3	3	12
	FCF LEFT For Debt	47.3	79.3	58	63	247.6
Debt from Q4	400.5	353.2	273.9	215.9	152.9

[Hendrick3]

Love your analysis Kavern. Another variable that comes with this success is a much higher stock price which will impact compensation expense, net debt and FFO. That may take your numbers lower by $10m per quarter if the share price goes up $2.50-3 per quarter. However if that happens, we will probably be very happy anyway. I am estimating $3FCF per share in 2022 at $85 prices. A reasonable

[kavern23]

Thanks Hendrick. Good point on man. comp expense, not taking that into account. I went back to 2018 reports...basically every Q2 from 2021 back to 2018.  Person can tell closing some really high operating wells over the years has helped on operating costs. Operating costs are much better at OBE now. 2021 was the year of the "comeback" for OBE. 2022 is shaping up to the year we

[kavern23]

Typo mean 100 CF quarters not FCF quarters

[JohnJBond]

As the debt declines, so does the monthly interest. As far as I can see CF does not seem to be affected by the share price associated performance bonuses.   I may be mistaken, but I didn't see it being paid out quarterly (except where the employee left).    The visablilty for oil prices is opaque beyond a couple of months.    Much as to do with Winter

[Kramerkarma]

I did a reverse engineering of q4 assuming the deal goes through on the 19th nov then production would average. Q4 1st half 25,974 Q4 2nd half 27,630 This is if we average 26,730 over all of q4. Meaning q1 we could average 28k boe. ??? Kavern23 would know how much boe we should be adding against a decline of 1,680 boe q1 22'

[Kramerkarma]

for any IPO / OBE ppl wondering i have both so it's relevant what is cheaper for balancing. I have IPO at 7,440 once deal goes through that's $28,630 /EV and I have OBE 27,630 q4 exit and that's $28,770 /EV ... both would need the shares added in plus q4 debt ect but for me too close to jump around . And my IPO is 10% size of my OBE. ... OBE will lower EV faster via debt reduction so

[pennydredful]

Purportedly some   US   buying  has come into IPO   which  according to todays S.A. article by investment Dr.  is related  to their superior  US "listing"  vs.  other   Cdn.  juniors which might  result in a higher valuation. The company does market  in the  U.S. 

[kavern23]

I am so excited for 2022 guidance to be released.  The numbers used in presentation assume 6.8 net wells carried forward from 2021 and since then this has been bumped to 12.6 wells carried forwaed...and been better well performance since the 2022 guidance was made that has lead to guidance increases....plus prop. A 29500 - 30500 BOE range for 2022 would be beautiful. Now to find capital for

[kavern23]

Working on 30 and 60 IP's by area East Crimsin, Crimsin and Pembina.  Then hopefully get get further.  Doing everything by product as light oil is the key. At 95 Cad so much better then anything. I would take a 12800 quarter on light oil over 28000 BOE...our share price would roll as we woild steam roll CF Easiest way to power past 100M CF quarters is light oil over 13000 The

[Kramerkarma]

26,730 boe post prop

[kavern23]

How are getting 26,730 post Prop...are you talking about whole quarter...... Because right now we should be at 25,500 + 2200 = 27,700 BOE Prop should be stable for awhile...it has taken the exteme declines already. I actually think Prop produced higher in Oct compared to Sept. OBE is goosing PROP. We arent getting Pembina wells contributing much yet.  Production is fine man.

[pennydredful]

Paying  distributions  or  dividends  was the  down fall  among other things ,  of   Penn  West. and many others .OBE   presumably  has plenty  of    tax  pools   so  has  minimal   or   no  taxes to pay  . Dividends  are  taxable  so  in