Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

OBE vs Peers

[Helloworld]

From Nuttall recent post using 100 wti and YE 2023 debt ev to CF average in sector is 2.3x with lowest at 1.3x (CPG). At 100 wti YE 2023 OBE will have 200 million cash and FFO of about $680 million giving it a EV to CF ratio of 0.9x, significantly lower than peers (a ratio of 1.3 would be $13.50 share price and 2.3x would be $22 share price). With this undervalue and large tax pools ($5 share value) I would think would make a very compelling buyout option. Any thoughts that the delay in lining up financing is because they are trying to sell the company without long term debt involved?

[JohnJBond]

We will know about the refinancing when they disclose the details  Could be any time  To me it means they havnt nailed down what they want yet  Loukas is a tough negotiator  If they are now at net debt of about $330 million  and If Their focus is to get to 37000-38000 boe and spend $150 million on capex in H2 (meaning they will probably make another $150

[pennydredful]

A  major   dealer  is now   marketing   their    debt    paper  with   an   11%    coupon. 

[arnolddiver]

Thanks Penny. I'm assuming the 11% coupon is for the junior debt and the senior will be at a better rate. Nice to know that Loukas was successful. The bank term loan was holding us back.

[JohnJBond]

The interest rate on the PROP loan is 10.5% (loan value $10.5 million March 31) The prop loan was obtained when the risk free rate was lower than it is now  They have 4 notes currently with rates of 7.76 - 9.37%    Loan value About $47 million (March 31) Their current syndicated bank debt is a variable rate. I think they need about $330 million less the above - or about

[fortunefavorsus]

Yeah we are talking a few million in interest.  Some traders always try to make it a bigger issue than it is.  I saw this on the Surge and Baytex boards.  Since then those stocks surged much higher as they paid down debt.  I am far more concerned about paying down debt below $250.  Some investors in OBE don't like hedges but if they could added some more when oil was

[JohnJBond]

Investors can hedge oil prices themselves Producers should only sell their future production forward when required by lenders to do so

[AtomicForce]

Can you please share your source?

[jorgen78]

please giv me CD $ prising  i dont know what is happening JL

[pennydredful]

A   guy   from   the   Bank  of  Sark   tipped   me   off.   His   name  is    Treble  Plowers