Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Oil Prices

[kavern23]

You guys need to incorporate the threat of technology gains in helping north america production.

The USA frac count has stay stable at like 260-275 range in 2023 and that is alot and really means more than rig counts in 2023 forward.

Reason total rigs can go down and frac count level remains the same is because large companies are starting to refrac the 2014-2015 wells that were under frac ed.

Do you think it makes sense for companies to adversise their sucess at refrac ing? 

Oil production in USA needs to be 12.8m or lower or even 12.5m to get excited.

Next week is the crude build as exports from USA wont be so high in 5.2m range per day. 

I like OBE. But I think everyone should be happy the paper specualtors exist as they are actually helping bullish.  Not new shorts.  

USA oil producton is a problem and 13 or  13.2 or 12.9m per day....ALL TOO HIGH.

But OBE has a good plan, I like it.  Just no reason to be in market right now. 

I think after annuals is when alot of companies unfort start to trade lower...no matter how good.

[JohnJBond]

US frac count was not stable during 2023.    It peaked in March and April at over 290, and was in the 230's by the end of the year.

[kavern23]

No John...look at this link:  https://www.aogr.com/web-exclusives/us-frac-spread-count/2023 USA was between 250-270 frac spreads all year long. Going to 230 during Christmas break doesnt count. We cant lie to ourselves as oil prices trade on real data. USA production is over 13m and wasnt forecasted well in reaching these heights as people dont want to accept a non bullish view. People

[JohnJBond]

As I said, 290's in March and April, and decline since.