Oncolytics Biotech Inc T.ONC

ASCO relevance

[Geneman2004]

Looking for grizzled veterans of this story. Are there additional discussion sites? Also posted on Stocktwits.

This ASCO presentation may spark a change in sentiment about the company. Seems like a good time to discuss ONCY if there is actual work being done on the story. You don't want to get over your skis on this ASCO presentation. BRACELET is a 3-arm trial with 15 patients in each - not designed to reveal a reliable survival outcome but powered to inform about response rate and immune impact. BRACELET has excluded ER- breast cancer patients - a group with no demonstrated response. The abstract was approved for presentation with data from NOV 2022; the ASCO data will be updated by 6 months. If the MAY 2023 BRACELET data confirm the results of the 57 ER+ patients in the IND213 trial (~30 Reo treated patients in BRACELET and IND213), the company negotiates with a partner and the FDA for a Ph III registration trial. If the updated BRACELET results are lukewarm, the breast indication is eliminated.

[Noteable]

We have had pelenty of time to discuss ONCY on this message board and don't require your uninformed  "johnny-come-lately" opinion to tell us how little you know, particularly since your profile shows that you were created today. So go back to the yahoo message board and commiserate with your long-term buddies over there

[Noteable]

Should read: "We have had plenty of time to discuss ONCY on this message board ...."

[westcoast1000]

Geneman, I recall someone with a similar nic on the old Yahoo board. Yes, of course, actual work is being done on pela (former reoslyn) as evidenced in great detail on the company web site. Less work is being done on the story, per se. The company seems more than willing to let their clinical results do the talking. Personally, I am not over my skiis regarding the upcoming presentation. I just

[Geneman2004]

I am the same Geneman as per the old Yahoo ONCY and ONCY v2. Have continued to hold shares but lightened up when the response to IND213 was yet another small Ph II confirmation trial. Years have passed and here we are. I bought the original IPO at CAN$0.85 - after a 9:1 reverse split, translates to $7.50 per original share!! Like most people, underwater. I have endured the RAS story; Brad Thompson

[Noteable]

". If Pela converts cold cancers to hot and improves survival after immunotherapy, the story is done and the share price will take care of itself. This is a multi-billion $$ indication." Bravo Carey. We are in full agreement on this point. Thus far the clinical results have demonstated that pelareorep to turn cold tumors "hot", and I have elaborated on how

[Noteable]

Furthermore, ONCY's pelareorep is administered via intravenous injection (IV) not intratumorally (IT) as you have suggested .... so it appears that you haven't kept up with much of pelareorep's evolution from animal studies to the mBC Bracelet-1 study which is aimed at ER+/HER2 (negative) breast cancer patients in which immune checkpoint inhibitors have no effect and that has resulted

[inthno]

Hey Noteable, if you read through Genemans post carefully you would have realized he was talking past tense (as this person had endured ) as onc used to be injected intratourmally as that was one of their first trials involing prostate cancer. I know that many of you are not familiar with Geneman but was always straight forward and to the point and more knowlegable than most so we should give him

[inthno]

Hello Geneman and good to see you back, we used to have some good conversations in the old days with you , bioeye, myself, proboscis, and rjc. I have hung around and endured the story forever hoping that one day they would come through and this time looks as good as any or actually better than their usual as there is a lot more to back it up at this time or so it seems. I do like that we basically

[Geneman2004]

I see a few names from the distant past. It has been a long and winding road, that's for sure. I know that a few of the original board population are still involved with the stcck. A couple have died and many have moved on to different pastures (not necessarily greener over the last 2y). All of us elderly investors have lived through many iterations of this company and there are no doubt newer

[Proboscises]

Genenan2004, welcome back!  I remember you from the old Yahoo ONCY and ONCY v2 boards. You were always a voice of calm reason and you often brought valuable insight. If I remember correctly you were an MD or involved in biotech, or something to that effect. In any case I am pretty sure you are the same guy as from the old days since you write in the same thoughtful and informed style. 

[Geneman2004]

great to connect again. maybe there will be a collection of like-minded investors that emerge. There are lots of science topics and even more investing topics. The company has a whole new cohort of investors now and we will see what the tenor of discussion is. If it is crappy, there are lots of ways for a small number of motivated people to connect. We can just add our 2c and see how it goes

[Noteable]

" .. lots of ways for a small number of motivated people to connect ..." Maybe -- but history shows that your ways to connect privately and exchange information was not very successfully since your ONCYV2 message board failed miserably. The ONCYV2 message board was another good example of "garbage in ... garbage out". 

[Noteable]

From Stocktwits: Oncyobserver 5:08 PM   @m00nsh0t @Geneman @Dude1234 Let’s be honest. Is it the same Geneman? Who knows. Didn’t he douche out 15 years ago? Nobody from back then was prescient about ONCY to any degree that mattered. MOA etc…..The science was so different then. Get on board or get out. EOM Bullish

[westcoast1000]

"If Pela converts cold cancers to hot and improves survival after immunotherapy, the story is done and the share price will take care of itself. This is a multi-billion $$ indication but many hurdles remain." It is good to see you back, Geneman. The statement above says it all as to the current state of affairs.  You will recognize some of the old voices here

[Noteable]

"It appears to be a tiresome and uninformed set of posters on Yahoo for the most part." And it always was. Perhaps their attitude will change - on the other hand perhaps not. 

[lonc17]

If you are indeed the original Geneman from the very early days of ONC then welcome back. Two questions for you: 1. Are you the Geneman? 2. Are you more optimistc now than when you stopped posting (with respect to ONC and the OV field in its entirey)?

[Noteable]

"Are you more optimistc now than when you stopped posting (with respect to ONC and the OV field in its entirey)?" What does a "johnny-come-lately" know about ONCY or the OV field in general? The answer is "Absolutely little to nothing", otherwise 'Geneman" would have remained here like those of us who do know.

[Noteable]

"johnny-come-lately" Geneman20042000 appears to be Carey Johnson from Calgary who once posted 20 year old tripe about ONCY, and now seems to be interested in pelareorep's effectiveness in breast and pancreatic cancers and BMS/Celegene's assets (or lack thereof) in these two disease states. BTW ctDNA analysis has limited useage as a liquid biopsy/predictive diagnostic

[lonc17]

For those more familar with Notable than Geneman... Geneman has a history of posting knowledgable expert opinion, and he is most often correct (in hindsight). He has once again become interested enough to post and I consider this to be a very positive developement. I have no idea nor do I care who he is, but I would not be at all surprised to discover he holds a Phd in molecular biology. 

[Noteable]

As I read on I see that lonc17 continues to remain a critic of mine while lauding Geneman20042000. So that hasn't changed whatsoever. Coffee barista my foot my dear lonc17..... 

[Pinfisher1]

Notable, I've been in ONCY for 23 years; Geneman's the real deal.  He's got cred; he's been in this company for a long time, too; we want him posting, so let's not scare him away.  He won't post, if folks are busting his chops.  I'm sure you're knowledgeable, too....and we appreciate your guidance as well.  Thanks!!

[Angler101]

Notable....I agree with Pinfisher....we value your posts tremendously, but we believe Geneman also has a lot to offer, even though, as you say, he quit posting for a long time and may not be as up to date on some of the science.....and I wish to ask, as I’m guessing many others on this board wish as well, with the greatest respect that you let us in on your credentials like Geneman just did, so we

[Noteable]

In addition I have a working background in intellectual property management.

[westcoast1000]

Well said, pinfisher1.

[askretka]

Pinfisher1 you've been in ONC for 23 years yet your Pinfisher1 ID was created on 30th of April 2023? But you want us to believe you're credible?? Insert comedy laff track here................................... Cheers!!

[Buckhenry]

Some folks on here take this site waaaayyy  to seriously.  It's a public forum like twitter... you need to take everything here with a grain of salt... it will keep your blood pressure  down. 

[westcoast1000]

It does not cost anything to be polite.

[Geneman2004]

I am the original Geneman from long ago. My name is Carey Johnson and I don't hide behind a pseudonym. I post on twitter @geneman20042000 but I don't tweet too much about ONCY, for the most part. Medical Degree from Calgary; Pediatrics and Medical Genetics Fellowship UCLA; Howard Hughes Fellowship in Molecular Biology (UCLA). I currently work as a Physician who sees patients with breast

[Noteable]

Once again dear Geneman there is nothing that you posted that we don't already know. The difference between you and the rest of us is that your information is old and doesn’t speak to any of the advantages of using ONCY's pelareorep in comparison to other IO therapies or other OVs for that matter. The simple reason for this lack of knowledge it seems is that you don't know the

[inthno]

I have been around since 2000 and not going anywhere right now because of the pontential and possibilities. My problem is that the amount of time all of this is taking and rightly so for now but patents are getting close to expiring and even though extendable, my understanding that is only with an fda approval for the product although I might be wrong on this point and that is why the surrogate

[Noteable]

Furthermore the PD-(L)1 checkpoint inhibitor market will be in excess of US$120 Billion by 2027 which ONCY is seeking to expand by making these checkpoint inhibitors 2-3x more effective. And if you Geneman had kept up with the changes in the IO space you would have known this but instead of your own DD you think that now we are going to feed you information to bring you up to speed to facilitate

[Noteable]

Patents are inconsequential now that the FDA will grant 13 years of exclusivity on the approval of novel biologics like ONCY's pelareorep.How many times do I need to keep posting this for you to understand?

[inthno]

UPON APPROVAL Noteable , upon approval so how many times to I have to keep repeating this for you to understand. We do not have approval and therefore need to get the phase 3 trials underway in a timely manner and hopefully with a relatively smaller patient population which is possible with the biomarkers to help with all of this. You do not always have to be so contentious all the time. It is

[Noteable]

Upon approval YES ... and therefore it doesn't matter whether you have a patent or not. So having a patent is inconsequential ....since the whole purpose is market exclusitivity and that's all. This was why patents were first sought after ... MARKET EXCLUSIVITY. Now it doesn't matter except for composition of matter and manufacturing. Method of delivery from IT to IV to SC to PO are

[Eileen68]

Geneman - I too have been around from the early V2 days. I can try to give a couple scenarios based on the market / trading side. My scenarios assume that Pela works in Mbc like most here are hoping it does. We also have the Car-T tech and the panc trial coming along.  First, if Oppenheimer picks up coverage and assigns a buy rating with a price target, the stock will almost certainly

[Geneman2004]

If the science works, the share price will rise many multiples. The addressable market for ONCY currently includes breast and panc and would be in the range of $20B - if they augment treatment by a measly 10%, that would be 2B in adjuvant sales alone. American and European approvals remain cumbersome and I see no way that either will provide AA based on two different trials with a total of 60

[Geneman2004]

oops.....hold out for hundreds of dollars if there is an offer for $10?  I would not put any value on the fact that I am back posting. The company faces a binary event after many years of crickets......lots going on but crickets in terms of investing impact.  I would want to discuss all of these topics. I think we enter a very interesting time but I certainly acknowledge that there are

[Eileen68]

It is my belief mgmt would sell panc and Mbc rights for $10bln. Don't underestimate the chance of AA. On 3/22/23 Zynyz was granted AA based on a single arm 65 patient trial. 1/19/23 Tukuysa was granted AA based on an 84 patient open label study. 

[Geneman2004]

Zynyz is yet another PD-L1 inhibitor. Don't forget that the company received a CRL for the same indication 2y ago and this was not a novel application for a previously unapproved line of drug. Even saying that, a very significant surprise.  Tukysa is yet another TKI that provides the option for dual therapy in those rare cases of RAS- Her2+ metastatic colon cancer. Both of these

[KTDfyi]

I'm glad you found a place to discuss your ideas. Having been around since the original thesis paper, speaks volumes. Most of our questions should be answered in the next month or so. A paradigm shift is possible. The safety profile of pelareorep is - 50% of what the FDA requires for AA. That said there's never been an adverse event, to my knowledge anyway. If Bracelet-1 data shows

[Eileen68]

Back to the original discussion of share price. Forgetting about AA, one P3 ready trial is worth 1bln+. Most contend we have 2. This implies a value of around $30/share US. Regardless of the therapy, a big pharma will likely not buy the panc and Mbc rights for 10bln, which I think they are worth, from the current SP. Therefore, in order to get the 10bln I believe management is looking for, we need

[westcoast1000]

Thanks, Eileen. I do not have knowledge of what a P3 is worth on average, but it should be driven in part by the size of the prize at the end if the p3 works, and the likelihood it works. From what I can gather, the size of the prize for both mBC and Panc are very huge. the likelihood is works has got to very high, IMHO, for this reasons. Let us consider panc. To my knowledge, after looking

[Noteable]

Geneman knows squatt about much and little about market target and size.