The only threat I see two natural gas prices going forward before winter is the possibility that when Northstream two starts flowing in October. European gas storage is 60% below where it should be at this time… It's an impossible situation… Europe is in trouble if they have a cold winter.
Does anyone know how quickly Russia could refill those storage facilities when it starts Nordstrearm 2 in October?
Russia also has the ability to ship additional gas through the Ukraine. But I am 100% certain they will not do that unless there is a humanitarian crisis in Europe. The Russians do not want to give any gas transit fees to the Ukrainians. If Russia were able to solve the storage crisis… Then the first casualty will be LNG exports out of the United States. If the LNG volumes drop then the US could eliminate their deficit for storage. But I think it's a little too late.
I'm currently too busy to do the research on how much volume and how quickly they could replace the deficit. I'd be interested if anybody has time to do the research.