Comment by JayBankson Feb 03, 2022 8:44am
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Post# 34392404
RE:Is it a BUY ?
RE:Is it a BUY ?Personally, I'm feeling ready to sell my position.
I've made gains of over 62% in my holding period of several years on this company, better returns are had by those that added during the Covid and other most recent years pull backs, as my cost basis is $24 from over 6 years ago. I've rode the rollercoaster and do like the company.
My only 2 issues are:
- that over the years the company has grown it's asset base and quality of the entity and diluted the count but have not givin shareholders anything more in return. (I spoke more about this in anouther post late Dec).
- we are in the midst of the 4th top in the past 15 years and the fall off comes quite dramatically afterwards and we are yet to really break resistance of high 36s with 2 touches. I'm not a technical investor by any means and past does not dictate future performance, but it can give an idea of movement. I don't think this run up is over as I feel we stay pretty steady though summer to fall 2022, and I see about 10-12% upside, but I also can expect a realistic, violent pullback of 30-50% at some point within a year or 2 which would likely coincide with a oil market pullback.
I'm personally still willing to ride until I decide on a better move that I'm confident in, which I'm actively looking for, but I think if we see the price jump into the 35-36s, I'll likely exit (as I should have done last summer) without news of a dividend boost. Should we get word of a bump up, I would likely stick in longer to see what management does further. I really liked the acquisition of US assets and looking to broaden the customer base, but other than making the company larger and safer, I don't see it helping my investment return grow if management continues on this path. I would have no problem circling back around after a pullback and getting back in, as one of my mistakes has been not adding to my investment at lower prices.