Sherritt International Corp T.S

TD Note April 21: Q1 EPS $0.14 EBITIDA $27mil NAV $1.77

[rkhosla]

Here is the only text reference re Sherritt:

Production off to a slow start. As expected, many companies have indicated

that Q1/22 will likely be the low point for the year for production. Mine sequencing,

maintenance, weather, and freight challenges affected many producers. The shortlived

CP Rail strike affected sales for Teck Resources, Hudbay, and Sherritt;

scheduled maintenance downtime affected production at First Quantum's Cobre

Panama mine.

[Albatross]

I'll take $0.14 EPS.. Now I want to see them use that money to pay down some debt. A few more quarters like this last one and Sherritt will be in a much better position overall. We just need Cuba/US relations to turn the corner and all people can prosper. 

[Ventoux]

$.14 EPS times 397 million (approx. shares outstanding) equals approximtely $56 million or TWICE the $27 million EBITDA you have referenced.  Can you reconcile what you posted? Thanks.

[rkhosla]

You are correct but these are the numbers TD gives.  Also interesting they 'upped' their 2022 Ni assumption from $11.25 to a whopping $11.32.  So these numbers are predicated on a nickel price which is very significantly below where we have been averaging for over a month now.  

[Nickbull]

I have earnings in the 60-65 mil range. I still think the street has this way wrong. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. I own shares from 1.40 to .10 cents. Well in the money on a cost average. I was sweating bullets when it looked like they were going broke with unmanageable debt and a garbage nickel price. Now that that is behind us and the business is more focused on the

[Ernieandbert]

Why do all you guys on this platform insist on looking at financial reporting in EPS and Net Income?  If I were you, I would focus on the only two things that matter:  1) Ebitda and 2) FCF.  FCF being the ultimate goal. It is Ebitda/FCF that are used in the formula to pay back the bonds in Oct for the excess cash flow sweep...not EPS or Net Income.   I do agree that these

[YourFriendo]

Last quarter cash dropped $20 million. what are your projections for cash this quarter?

[Ernieandbert]

It is called working capital and it fluctuates as the business grows especially like I think it will.  Matter of timing 

[Maxmoe]

Thought you were out mid sixties February? What's your projection?

[YourFriendo]

Here are my projections: - mediocre production - non material change in cash position - higher than expected NDCC cost - little move in the share price. - really a nothing quarter. Im interested to see how they will finance the expansion as that has remained fuzzy.

[Stratocheif]

The only thing that matters with this company is what's gonna happen with thier deadbeat cuban partners....who seem to have the upper hand in determining Sherritt's fate...unfortunately.

[rkhosla]

Everyone said I was BANANAS when I suggested this - namely that the partnership is not equal.  glad to have you on side with that general concept. They set the taxes. They set the royalties. And they seem to have more than an equal say when it comes to deciding what to do with the cash sitting in the JV and when to declare a Divy.  

[SilenceDogood1]

What a couple of clowns.  Yes, the government sets the tax and royalty rate as they do everywhere.  

[rkhosla]

The government also owns and controlls each and every Cuba entity we partner or do business with.  Judge jury and executioner.  The fox is guarding the henhouse etc.  

[Nickbull]

Hahaha dog. Those who don't understand this business can comment all they like. At the end of the day the joint venture functions as equal partners. Both sides operate in good faith. I don't see or have heard of any reason why that might breakdown.  cheers

[Stratocheif]

Partnerships have a very high failure rate....especially when one partner holds all the power (moa is the property of a communist government) and at the same time is bankrupt. Remember ambatovy. Sherritt was 42% partner in that jv. But they couldn't cough up thier share of the money and we all know how that ended

[Stratocheif]

In the case of ambatovy we had a deadbeat partner (sherritt) who couldn't meet thier end of the deal but Sumitomo has deep pockets so they told sherrit to get lost and they assumed the expenses sherritt was committed to. Here with moa we have a different but even worse story imo. Here we have two deadbeat partners, just that one is more deadbeat than the other...the Cubans. So what can happen?

[rkhosla]

'sweating bullets' - i was right there with you... I managed to bring my dollar cost average down to $.49. But my God many sleepless nights.  I agree the street is way behind on this.  so long as they don't blow it, we will see some significant target increases after earnings.  For me what will be telling is the size of any JV dividends.  Yes I am fixated on this