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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Superior Plus Corp T.SPB

Alternate Symbol(s):  SUUIF

Superior Plus Corp. is a Canada-based distributor of propane, compressed natural gas, renewable energy and related products and services. Through its primary businesses, propane distribution and CNG, RNG and hydrogen distribution, it delivers clean burning fuels to residential, commercial, utility, agricultural and industrial customers. Its segments include U.S. Retail Propane Distribution (U.S... see more

TSX:SPB - Post Discussion

Superior Plus Corp > Scotia comments after conference
View:
Post by incomedreamer11 on Feb 23, 2024 10:51am

Scotia comments after conference

Remain Market Weight

OUR TAKE: Negative. Yesterday’s SPB was a serial acquirer that leaned heavily on its balance sheet in pursuit of EBITDA growth (similar to PKI). We only need to look at a 15+ year stock chart to see how shareholders have rewarded that strategy (Exhibit 1). In fairness, SPB has consistently paid a strong distribution, due to its income trust roots. Tomorrow’s SPB will be different. As rapid M&A-fueled growth (old leadership) transitions/moderates to more thoughtful/tactical organic growth (new leadership), and with the Certarus crown jewel, investors should be rewarded through multiple expansion. We’ve discussed before how SPB could achieve $15/sh (here). But, it will take time, we’re not there yet. First, the ‘24 EBITDA base of $700M to $750M from May (Exhibit 2) is much lower now, with guidance at ~$675M, a step backward. The growth trajectory is now lower too, to 5%, albeit by design. Second, elevated leverage, which deteriorated further q/q to 3.8x, is likely capping the multiple SPB could achieve. Third, some shareholders suggest the variability of the propane distribution business could mask the value of Certarus. In light of the first two points (#3 is a wait/see), our PT moves 5% lower to $12/sh. Maintain Sector Perform.What we learned on the call: (1) SPB is transitioning as a business, moving from growth through acquisitions to organic growth through operational excellence; (2) management expects 5% EBITDA growth y/y, largely driven by 15% to 20% growth in Certarus; (3) SPB continues to grow the Certarus fleet, which should see the MSU count grow to ~790 trailers in ‘24. Management noted that, of the US$230M in capex planned for ‘24, Certarus growth will make up half; (4) the legacy propane distribution business will continue to manage margins within the context of its ability to grow its customer base and manage churn; (5) de-levering is a priority, the pace of which will be driven by EBITDA growth + prudent working capital management; and (6) while SPB has a buyback program in place, “buybacks, if any, will be pretty minimal because from a prioritization standpoint, they come after those things [de-levering, organic growth, etc.]”.

Comment by Freezerburn on Feb 23, 2024 11:10am
Translation;.... Wait.
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