I have lived through a few recessions and dabbled in the market a bit myself.

An inverted yield curve is a great indicator of an impending recession, but many inverted yield curves don't result in a recession.  It really depends upon how inverted the curve gets and for how long.  Temporary inversions are typically meaningless while extended and steep inversions are better indicators of significant market corrections.

So where does the current yield curve inversion stand in terms of comparisons?  Right now, the inversion is pretty steep.  However, the real questions imo are whether the inversion is increasing or decreasing and how fast the inversion revert back to a normal yield curve? 

The jury is still out on that one.  Today, we get numbers (feedback) faster than every before and in far greater variants. 

Does the 8.5% CPI figure from July represent a meaningful reduction from the  9.1% number in June or is it a one-off due to lower gas prices reducing the price of everything.

 I personally don't think the PMI numbers are as relevant as they used to be but Experienced obviously still tracks them carefully.  Then we have GDP numbers etc. 

I agree with Experienced that recessions are not kind to the market, but....there's always a but....a number of factors play into the severity of the downturn in regards to share prices such as:

* how frothy was the market at the top
* what percentage is the market down already from the top
* how severe will the recession be
* how much higher are interest rates likely to go before they max out
* how long will it take before the market stops fearing additional interest rate hikes

How does all of this affect SU?  For starters, SU as an integrated oil company remains somewhat insolated from the market at this stage.  Oil production continues to falter due to many years under-investment which isn't likely to change as long as western government maintain a bearish stance on oil.  As such, it is difficult to see oil prices dropping signficantly.  In fact, oil prices are probably heading higher for longer. 

I agree with Experienced that eventually thing regress to the mean, which in the case of oil would be the marginal cost of production.  However, with inflation of the cost of all aspects of oil production still heading higher and demand outpacing supply, it is easy to see the marginal cost actually going higher.  We saw that this past quarter with SU but SU gets off lucky because their reserves are staring them in the face.  Anyone looking to build or even replace reserves is in a very different position.

Nobody but my family cares where I think where oil prices are going or how that will affect SU.  My contibution to this thread is to try to add ideas for people to process in their journey.  I feel it is the least I can do in return for the valuable info that I get from the thread as I know squat about oil.