Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Shorts will win on betting against Suncor

[Obscure1]

Everyone knows that the street has hundreds of millions of SU shares to sell because of ESG.  Everyone knows that SU mgmt is weak and they don't have any skin in the game.

Unlike ENB, SU has not facilitated the transition of institutional sellers, instead hiding their heads in the sands and picking up the scraps. 

The rules on shorting in Canada may as well not even exist because they are not enforced. 

The sophisticated American shorters know they can prey upon Canadian based companies like Suncor that have huge floats, lots of liquidity, and weak management.  There is a reason that CNQ is almost double the price of Suncor.

IPL is a perfect example of the shorts winning big time,  IPL got themselves in a pickle by having too much debt and creating a modified DRIP which allowed the shorts to eat their lunch.   The shorts drove the IPL share price down from $20 to $6 per share in a hurry.  We all know how that played out as the company is now owned by the Brascan guys.

If management doesn't address the situation, the Shorts will continue to control Suncor until a whale comes along and swallows Suncor, much like Brookfield swallowed IPL.  Don't think that the much larger scale of Suncor vs IPL will make a difference because there are lots of companies that could swallow Suncor.

So what do you do as a SU investor?

As painful as it might be, waiting it out will probably provide a nice payoff.  Anyone that sold IPL below $10 is now kicking themselves as IPL got back to pre-pandemic prices on the takeover.  The value is there in Suncor and somebody will realize it and take advantage.  If SU's mgmt doesn't take their heads out of their butts, it is going to take awile for current shareholders to be rewarded.  

There is simply no other reasonable explanation.

[ilvmyt5s]

Shorting a stock that management is buying back for half price and building massive cash reserves as the price of oil reaches $200 a barrel is not very smart.   they better find some more money real quick...

[Obscure1]

Mgmt isn't buying stock back at half price, they are buying it back at market price and the market price is being set by the shorts.  The shorts are taking their cues from the intention of institutions who are exiting SU.   The fact that SU is buying back 7 millon shares per month might provide shareholders with a sense of security, but in the past month, the short position unwound

[ilvmyt5s]

oh now it's not good to be priced half as much as their peers..rrrriiight. got it   Not a smart idea amassing a large short position on a stock...it attracts lots and lots of attention. shorts fry really nicely nowadays ;p

[Eigen337]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Experienced]

Frankly in my experience, I don't believe that what is going on over the last couple of weeks is a short attack.  The evidence in terms of short positions suggests that the shorts have in fact been closing out their positions and that if anything would be supportive of the SP. Further short attacks tend have some "violence" associated with them - meaning sharp downward spikes

[Oldnagger]

When Suncor itself or anyone buys shares, they pay market prices . What they get is an entitlement to all future profits. According to the 2020 year end report, the value of proved plus probable reserves after taxes is 100  billion dollars Discounted at 10 % it is 30 billion dollars. That was at Brent price $41.65. So today the reserves value would easily be twice as much. So take 60 billion