Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

Global bank collapse averted, so what's next with oil?

[MigraineCall]

Although it had nothing to do with oil demand, the fear of global bank contagion has brought oil to it's knees, even many oil names are down 10 - 15%, although banks have nothing to do with oil demand.

So the powers that be scrambled and came to the rescue, and now the market is starting to think the bank crisis is now over, other than a couple casualties, as indexes and banks are rallying.

So why is oil still under $70? Large unloading in the crude options before expiry today and contract roll over has a lot to do with it. Oil and oil stocks certainly have a lot of catch up to do. It takes a huge bite out of inflation, as everything is transported.

Fundamentals have not changed. OPEC has not even blinked to cut production in a reaction to these low prices as they see it as temporary blip, but forsee an imminent supply crunch around the corner. European, EIA, IEA, and OPEC forecasts all consistently show an additional near 2.5m bpd global oil demand in 2023. 

China is back, importing more, and exporting less product.

If Biden even whispers a word about starting to repurchase 220M bbls of SPR, the market will spike.

Also, the first SPR releases were loans, to be repaid in oil, with interest. These millions of bbls will come out of commercial crude inventory soon.

Perhaps oil is just staying down low to create a humanitarian corridor to let the shorts out? 

As oil moves up, it will hit all the same moving averages again as it took out on the way down. Trading opportunities galore as it bounces up to and off resistances.

For those with dry powder, like Experienced, consider these insanely rare lows might just be a special gift for you to take some positions before the market hits the fan and does the funky chicken this summer.

[Experienced]

Despite our differences of opinion regarding the long term future of oil, I do agree with you that the current situation presents a short term opportunity to buy oil stocks.  In that vein, I took advantage of the trading today to add to my small position (it is still small). That said, I do not consider my purchases as being a long term or for that matter a medium term hold.  As I have

[Galic1]

Thank God I sold SU at $47 I was hoping to buy back in at the low $40s shocked how fast it happened Carter Worth on CNBC said that the oil sell off was overdone on Fast Money on March 16, I didn't buy yet but looks like a good trade from here!