Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Melphalen flufenamide

[qwerty22]

We must have mentioned melphalen flufenamide, a PDC that got approval recently.

https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-approvals-and-databases/fda-grants-accelerated-approval-melphalan-flufenamide-relapsed-or-refractory-multiple-myeloma

Pretty small trial. Data summarized in table.

https://sparkcures.com/treatment/264/melphalan-flufenamide

There's no question PDCs can work, it's about proving th1902 has activity.

[qwerty22]

On the stock front. Oncopeptides spiked in Mar on approval to a market cap close to 2 billion USD and since have drifter back to 1 billion. I wonder what sort of discussion is going on in Swedish chat boards about valuations?  

[scarlet1967]

It's already lunched under the brand name Pepaxto, grossed US $2.3 M in the first two weeks. https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.th/theratechnologies-inc?postid=33266771

[qwerty22]

Just as an example how rational is this biotech valuation? Oncopeptides IPO'd at ~50 in 2017 Within 18 months (I guess early data) it was trading in the 150 range For the rest of the development process it bounced around 150, sometime spiking much higher, sometimes much lower. It did this for 2 years. Pre the approval process it was at 120 Thru most of the approval process it

[scarlet1967]

Since the IPO this company has been diluting their shares just about every year the total proceeds overall were  $455 M!! Balanced view please.... Oncopeptides has completed a directed share issue raising approximately SEK 1,106 million (USD 130 million) Regulatory March 10, 2021 Oncopeptides has completed a directed share issue raising approximately SEK 1,414 million (USD 144 M) May

[qwerty22]

It's valued at a billion now, 2 billion at approval, start with that.

[SPCEO1]

Hope sells, reality does not get valued as highly in these markets. THTX has not quite figured that fully out yet but they are getting there. It is unfortunate they wasted so much time during a huge bull market leading off with reality (the legacy drugs) but that is water over the dam. We need to hope the bull market is not about to go over the dam as well just as they inverted ther presentations

[scarlet1967]

I can't see why some constantly see the glass half empty being critical is one thing being negative minded almost OCD is another. I have absolutely nothing against Q but common just bringing up the negativity re just about everything isn't productive or factual.

[qwerty22]

  You saying offerings explain the Sp? It all looks rational to you with that info? I guess I have the sense that people pick some "over-achievers" like cydy (lol) to compare THTX to. There are perfectly good companies, executing well, who have much more down to earth valuations. I'm all for balance. So at IPO 2017 had a valuation of 200 mil euros, about 200 mil USD at

[scarlet1967]

This company has had multiple offerings and very high cash burn which is understandable as they needed to fund their R&D programs, their approved drug is one of many of their programs , the more trials the more high risk high return scenario. As per $200 M in THTX's case please enlighten me where is it? So the legacy drugs, the NASH phase 3, the IP values for Egrifta, TH19 series etc are

[Wino115]

What that valuation informs us on is that one PDC for one indication of mylenoma (and 100% of their pipeline is that same drug for various interations of mylenoma) is worth those market caps you've put up there.  I'm not sure the expected path of earnings from the drug or the peak earnings for it, so don't know what that valuation is supporting as far as a potential revenue

[scarlet1967]

Thank you for great comment.

[qwerty22]

You see I don't favour that way of looking at things. The vast majority, almost all, companies will take one drug thru one lead indication. The scatter gun approach to this program is unlikely to lead to THTX running forward on all indication. Let's say they have good data and run on tnbc with th1902. I don't think you suddenly reduce your valuation of the program 5-fold because some

[scarlet1967]

They are burning cash with speed of light, about 300 M SEK q over q and have about one quarter of cash left with this burn rate they need to raise funds soon.   Now they will generating some revenues for their drug but the market knows with multiple programs all for multiple myeloma apart from one below they will be issuing shares again. So again there is a reason for their roller coaster

[SPCEO1]

Oncopeptides has eight, count 'em, 8 analysts covering the stock. Most of them from decent firms. They have traded over 4 million shares today versus just 16,600 for THTX. One company had a viable capital markets strategy and the other one has not. Hopefully, this is about to change as the absurdity of the current situation with THTX is quite remarkable.

[SPCEO1]

TH is burning about 10% of the cash annually that Oncopeptides is yet sells at roughly 33% of Oncopeptides valuation, which just hit a new annual low level today (while THTX share price is up 45% in 2021). THTX has maybe $70 million in revenues to Oncopeptides zero. It all comes down to selling the future possibilities and TH has not done that very well at all so far. I suspect this is about to

[Wino115]

I think those patently wrong revenue estimates are just indicative of the really bad and really fairly lazy analysts that cover the company. You'd think by now they know the growth rate is no where near that level. It's absurd how they not only figure those numbers out but that they aren't guided to reality as soon as those come out.  Often, analysts will run numbers by the CFO

[scarlet1967]

Well CFO is stuck in his house just finishing the spring cleaning and as we get more sunny days the entire IR department won't miss their daily picnics...

[realitycheck4u]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[scarlet1967]

Just look at their PR/ER it starts with detailed information about their R&D programs in an appealing manner so they really give it their full efforts to not only release the earning results but presenting their entire R&D programs nicely yet we are still waiting for the discrepancies of THTX's website to be corrected. I certainly hope things start happening very soon. https://www