Post by
SPCEO1 on Jul 01, 2021 11:02am
Speculating about the next financing
In the end, I think everything depends on the efficacy results for TH-1902. If they are bad, the financing options are not very good and the convertibles chances of needing to be paid off in cash are very high (since the market is showing no appreciation for NASH plays and may not do so anytime before MDGL reports its phase III results in late 2022). If TH-1902's efficacy results are very good, the stock price shoud soar, the convertible will almost certainly convert and potentially large sums of cash shoould be pouring in from a variety of pharma partners. There is a good c hance somme big pharma commpany makes us shareholders an offer we can't refuse under that scenario as well, making the issue of a financing moot. If TH-1902's efficacy results are just good, and not very good, it is a lot more difficult to know exactly how things will play out on the financing front as it will depend on the exact nature of the results. But if new cash needs to be raised, because it is unclear where things might go based on those just "good" results, or how fast everything about TH-1902 might move forward under those circumstances, then I have to believe the chances of a new capital raise in early 2022 is likely.
So, to say we should all be very interested in the efficacy of TH-1902 is a huge understatement. Whatever those results are is going to make a huge difference in the outcome for all of us, particularly with regard to the need for and terms of any future financing.
For the moment, we have lots of small reasons for optimism that those efficacy results will be very good. Here are some of those small reasons (I say small because only the actual data, which is yet to come, matters in the end):
1.) FDA gave TH-1902 a Fast Track designation while still in the pre-clinical phase - very unusual. It tells us that people with deep knowledge of cancer drugs think this could be a special drug (or drug platform to be more precise).
2.) Soleus - an institutional investor thought to have a level of expertise in this area far exceeding most other investors, participated (likely instigated actually) in the OO and THTX apparently is now the second largest holding in their portfolio. Like the FDA, a group with deep knowledge in cancer drugs clearly thinks TH-1902 has a very good chance of becoming a winning drug platform.
3.) THTX is adding staff rapidly indicating they have a high level of confidence about the future, and that is most likely tied to their understanding of their cancer prospects. Since they are in a position to have a better understanding than anyone else, that is a favorable sign.
4.) During the cancer webinar, there really were no odd concerns raised about the drug that we needed to be worrying about. In many drug trials, there are such concerns. They are often overcome but they keep investors worried right up to approval (safety concerns typically). So far, we have no such concerns, although it remains pretty early in the testing process for TH-1902 and some may yet arise.
5.) The pre-clnical work on mice and rats was unusually impressive. The drug seems to work wherever the sortilin receptor is overexpressed. It has to translate into humans but with the way the company is acting by hiring pre-clinical researchers and partnership experts, one can presume that whatever they have seen up to this point in the early phase I trial is only encouraging TH management about the prospects of Th-1902.
Comment by
jfm1330 on Jul 01, 2021 11:39am
This sums up the situation pretty well. And from now on, the more we don't hear from them on the trial, or the more it goes on, the better it is, in principle, because it will mean that they are still going up in the dose escalation process, well above the MTD of free docetaxel.
Comment by
techstocks22 on Jul 02, 2021 12:42am
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