They are going to be rolling in money and will need somewhere to spend it. Given all our connections to Pfizer, if TH-1902 or the Sort1+ platform looks as intriguing to pfizer as it does to us, then I cannot see how Pfizer will not be able to outbid anyone else who might be interested in buying TH or partnerring with TH on great terms - see the article below - wow!
$107B in 2+ years? Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine may redefine ‘megablockbuster’ by 2022 — analyst
Amber Tong
Senior Editor
If both its BioNTech-partnered Covid-19 vaccine and in-house antiviral live up to their full promises, Pfizer may be sitting on a $100 billion goldmine in 2022.
Geoffrey Porges
That’s according to SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges, who released his latest forecast early Tuesday complete with a lengthy breakdown of all the intricate factors going into his calculation. Bottom line: universal boosting and pediatric recommendations will shore up global Covid vaccine sales to $59 billion in 2021 and $48 billion in 2022, or $107 billion in cumulative sales.
On top of that, Pfizer is expected to bag $24 billion from its antiviral, Paxlovid, in 2022 (up from $95 million this year) and $33 billion in 2023.
All told, that means the pharma giant’s top line will exceed $100 billion in 2022 compared to an already stellar $82 billion this year before dropping back to $87 billion in 2023 and “returning to a more recurring $65bn in 2024.”
Porges has been closely tracking the cash windfall that the mRNA shot could bring to Pfizer, sizing it up as a blockbuster for years to come.
“By the end of 2022, we expect $107bn in cumulative sales from over 13bn doses of Comirnaty delivered,” he wrote, referring to the BNT162b2 vaccine by a brand name that has yet to earn widespread recognition.
While “tremendous uncertainty” remains about Paxlovid such as capacity (how many doses can Pfizer realistically manufacture?), price (how much will it vary across countries?), shelf-life (how long can governments keep it in stockpiles before having to purchase it again?), market share (how will it stack up against Merck’s molnupiravir?) and labeling, Porges noted that one thing is certain: Orders of Paxlovid will be large, given there’s already a $5.3 billion contract in the US, and the revenue will be profitable.
And like the vaccine, it’s looking like a long-term moneymaker.
“Our model estimates that Paxlovid could generate total seasonal revenue of $920mm-1.6bn annually beginning in 2023, which should provide meaningful recurring revenue for PFE over the long term,” he wrote.
AUTHOR
Amber Tong
Senior Editor
amber@endpointsnews.com
@AmberTongPW
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