Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Covid implications for meetings with shareholders

[SPCEO1]

While there appears to be a fair amount of unnecessary angst among some here about these meetings with large shareholders in late January, there is a very good chance they never actually happen due to covid. It seems like most think the current wave may be peaking around then and Quebec has already pretty much locked down. It may be that TH executives could not easily get out of Montreal or, more likely, would not be able to easily get back in if they traveled to the US for these meetings. So, these meetings may not even happen. 

But the hint we got from TH even scheduling them in the first place remains in place and still gives us a good idea about the timing of any news they may be sharing shortly. 

The biggest hint we have on the most important subject for TH right now is the fact that the trial is apparently still ongoing. So, very large doses of TH-1902 are still being given to patients and the odds that those patients with sortilin overexpressing cancers are seeing some positive impact on their tumors grows each day. The reality of the situation is likely a lot messier than that behind the scenes of the trial but, nevertheless, the longer the trial goes on the better our chances.  

On the whole silence, addition of Pfizer's recently retired CMO, removal of the corporate presentation, scheduling of meetings with large shareholders, etc. thing, it smells to me like a meaningful deal of some sort has been agreed upon that is now just waiting for a board's approval before being formally announced. I have no idea what sort of deal that might be, and it seems to me to be way too early for a really big partnership deal or an acquiisition of TH, but the circumstances still have a bit of that feel to it. I can see a Chinese partnership deal being struck at this early stage as the Chinese seem to be pretty agressive at the moment, or perhpaps a partnership with a Western drug company for a single aspect of the Sort1+ approach just to validate what TH is up to in the eyes of investors, but it seems too early for something bigger than that to be announced. And it may just be an announcement that there has been preliminary efficacy seen in phase 1a. But it still smells like something bigger might be happening. That may more reflect my overactive imagination than anything else. It borders on one of my wild speculations but there are enough hints out there now to make it not quite reach the threshhold of a wild speculation.

We will know soon enough.

[palinc2000]

Very easy for Canadians to enter the US All you need is proof that you are fully vaccinated! .... Entering Canada is a bit more complicated since in addition to the vax proof you need a negative PCR test before entering.... I must say that I see some  negative implications in THTX calling for a Meeting with large shareholders .....Seems to me like a mitigating measure to hold on to large

[SPCEO1]

I am concerned that the requirements to either leave and/or re-enter Canada or both may be upped further soon and that might impact the meetings. I personally do not think that is necessary but no one is consulting me on my thoughts on the matter! And Quebec seems to be at the head of the pack in its strident reaction to the pandemic.  While anything is possible, it is not my experience that

[jfm1330]

Not strident enough, hospitals are overwhelmed, deaths are on a sharp rise, even though overall we have half the per capita deaths the US have, and that after an awful start in the first wave. About your planned meetings with management, it could easily be done by visionconference.

[SPCEO1]

My daughter just got back from visiting her in-laws in Cancouver and she had to get tests in both directions. On the US side, it may be the airline required it rather than the government, but it was the same for her both ways. And it was a huge hassle and massively expensive for her to get it done on the US side due to a lack of tests ($250 each for her and her husband to get the test at the

[palinc2000]

I crossed the US border by car twice in December and I wasn't even asked if  I was vaccinated! Did not need a negative test on re entering canada since there was a waiver for tests when the time spent in the US was less than 72 hrs.That waiver was relinquished before Xmas BTW Quebec has no control as to who can cross the border...Its stricly a Federal jurisdiction However the

[palinc2000]

  Forgot to mention that the general public is not allowed with very few exceptions to get a free PCR test since last week  and rapid test wil' only be readily available starting next week

[longterm56]

I'm frequently amused by your wording, SPCEO.  "the fact that the trial is apparantly still ongoing." ... so that is an "apparent fact"? Not sure what that means.  It is not only possible, but very likely, that this big January event is to announce the results of Phase 1a, which means it was probably concluded a couple months ago and they have been summarizing

[SPCEO1]

So much to unpack here but at least I am amusing you - there is value in that! I said apparently because we don't really know if it is actually still ongoing. But I did hear from someone recently who indicated they had contacted the Gettysburg Hospital and were told the trial was ongoing but that it was hard to get into because they were only accepting one patient at a time. Of course, I don&

[Wino115]

I preface this by saying I am one of the people still confused by the dosage decision tree charts.  But it dawned on me that if they are only enrolling one slot at a time, would that mean there are only two conclusions this data point would support? 1. They are still moving up the dosage scale by adding one patient at a new higher level. or 2. The previously enrolled patients have been

[jeffm34]

This was some additional information which might imply still recruiting for part 1.  "That being said, we cannot request a slot until we know a patient meets basic eligibility criteria. You don't have to meet all the criteria initially for us to request a slot, just some of the most basic ones."

[jfm1330]

I found the reference used by Thera for the studu design on clinicaltrials.gov. https://academic.oup.com/jnci/article/89/15/1138/2526338 Here are the most relevants parts to understand how the escalation works In phase I trials of new drugs, the starting dose is usually one tenth of the LD 10 (i.e., the dose that is lethal to 10% of animals) in the most sensitive animal species in

[SPCEO1]

If I were holding a gun to your head right now and demanding you tell me where you thought TH is in their TH-1902 trial at this time and when you thought it would be ending, based on what you read about how these trials are done, how would you respond? It certainly appears to me like there is a wide range of possible options. Given how important a good phase 1a result is to TH on so many fronts

[SPCEO1]

I remember getting a good laugh as a kid from a Mad Magazine cover where they had a big picture of a very cute puppy with a gun held to its head and the cover said  "Buy this magazine or we will shoot this puppy!". Maybe we should try a similiar angle with TH to get them to break their silence and let us know what is going on!   

[Wino115]

Perhaps your childhood remembrance?  Classic.  On a tangential note, we sort of forget that we are probably the most informed investors around THTX.  The fact that even we can't really know where they are in the trial is  sort of absurd.  Clearer previous communications would have helped, or a better continual update.  If we can't figure out it could be

[SPCEO1]

That is it! A classic indeed - I wonder if it worked and if they sold more magaizines than typical. My apologies in advance to anyone who is offended by me getting a chuckle from that cover. I had a wonderful dog at the time and love dogs (too bad the missus doesn't!).  And you are right about the test of a good IR strategy. TH's strategy has often been quite peculiar and has almost

[muslix1]

big sell off by National bank... 3,89$ to 3.69$ in 30 min

[SPCEO1]

It first went up 4%+ on low volume and fell 6% on even lower volume, all in a short period of time. I am not sure much can be made of either move given howlow the volume was. 

[realitycheck4u]

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[jfm1330]

Don't take it badly, but this is a very American question... I agree there are many possibilities since they need at least six patients treated at a given dose with no more than one DLT event to qualify as a MTD. So they may need to come back to a lower dose they get that. Also, I don't know if they have six patients at every new dose level. That way would avoid the possible need to come