Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Uddin

[scarlet1967]

“In Uddin’s view, potential catalysts for the company going forward include the release of second quarter financial results in July, the release of Phase 1 data for its ongoing TH1902 trial sometime in 2022, along with a NASH licensing deal either in 2022 or 2023.”

 

https://www.cantechletter.com/2022/05/theratechnologies-has-a-141-per-cent-upside-says-research-capital/amp/

[palinc2000]

This is right up my alley!!!He is at least attempting to do the sum of the parts .....THTX is not a one trick pony.... 

[scarlet1967]

That's my opinion too, as you mentioned NASH's biggest hole is mainly the funding and increasing revenues are always most welcome.

[qwerty22]

Not yet cancer though. "Uddin’s valuation for Theratechnologies is a sum of the parts composition which takes into account the company’s commercial segment, factored in at a 2.9x 2022 EV/Sales multiple to the revised 2022 estimate, and the NASH project, which was factored in at a probability-adjusted NPV assuming a new 25 per cent success rate."

[SPCEO1]

In a report on 4/11 in which Uddin looked more closely at cancer following the AACR conference abstracts, he had this comment: Our valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology that combines TH’s commercial segment and the NASH project. We have not factored in TH1902 yet – but we have reviewed it. So, assuming we get good data in phase 1a, he may start putting a value on it. Then

[Wino115]

It looks very plausible to me that the latter is what he does.  Rarely have I seen an analyst with a high outlier price that isn't attracting any client interest raise it even higher. They usually just use it to eliminate some other assumptions they've made to inflate the target so as not to embarrass themselves and give them an equal wiggle room.  He will add Sort1+ and lower

[palinc2000]

So you and Spceo dont agree or dont believe in Paul focusing on Hiv and Nash as a strategic vision? Just looking for a Home run in oncology???

[SPCEO1]

If I were Paul, I would be secretly happy about the water problem delaying NASH since the hurdles there, beyond the science ones which may potentially not be that high, are significant (injection versus MDGL's pill, weird way it got to where it is scientifically leaving room for the FDA to find problems with their application for approval, patent shortcomings, financing the phase III trial

[palinc2000]

OH I see ... If cancer were to fail then that would trigger your exit strategy Betting the farm on cancer is your dtrategy

[Bucknelly21]

My guess is Nash slowly fades away and they sell the opportunity or it's a really long time until they actually do something with it in the existing business will never generate any meaningful amount of money it might get better but nothing that's going to actually improve the stock price dramatically I tend to think cancer is the only real short term catalyst the company has

[SPCEO1]

Assuming nothing else changed that would impact that decision, yes. But things will almost certainly change, including the share price. I am not one who likes to sell on bad news (as should be abundantly clear by now!) as that is hardly optimal. All that being said, it is pretty clear already that cancer has not failed yet. It will be some time before that can be determined, so you are likely

[canadapiet]

Wow! Biotech is volatile and high risk for sure. But now you're telling that you are an extremely speculative investor. The only moving factor is their highly speculative fase 1a trial...... Good luck  SPCEO1 - (5/4/2022 3:58:05 PM) RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Uddin If I were Paul, I would be secretly happy about the water problem delaying NASH since the hurdles

[Wino115]

Sales of expensive, niche HIV drugs will not be a meaningful value driver.  HIV patients are shrinking, not growing. NASH is on pause and even if started, 2 years until prelim data and 4-5 for IND.  I still actually believe in NASH and tesamorelin and th8nk it should be and will be developed at some point.  I do think it's a highly valid approach with solid logic around MOA.

[scarlet1967]

I am inpatient like many long term holders and of course if by end of phase1a the drug shows good safety profile and/or preliminary efficacy and the company comes out of hiding and sell the news effectively then we get a decent lasting catalyst throw in some partnership even better. The MDR market might be shrinking but all those patients who have been on ART for years will be ending up with

[palinc2000]

I think we should all applaud Udin's view of ThTX... which makes THTX as a sound investment without giving any value to oncology...I think Udin's take is in sync with Paul s...I completely agree with Scarletts post which reflects the best  approach to build a solid company which will not be facing crisis every 3 years  

[palinc2000]

[He is a half Christian,,,,He believes in resurrection but not in miracles .....So his target price representing a 147% increase does not put a value for the Sort 1 plattform but he has reviewed the preclinical data and sees the release of Phase 1 results as a possible catalysts  Indeed a 147%  SP target excluding Oncology is really a validation of Paul 's strategic vision,,,, quote