Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

THTX Crowdsource Research: TH1902 Status, Derisk needs

[Wino115]

I've been building a spreadsheet around the parts of the PDC that need to work in order for it to be a success and what data we know around the issues. Given more will be learned before year end and the 1A data dump in 1Q23 (according to CEO), the more derisking of the elements, the more the share should start to reflect this. Similarly, if data confirms or is trending negative, it's going to be a drag on the valuation. We are where we are because there's only been a small amount of safety data given and just hints around efficacy. That should change before year end.

I'm just trying to categorize the various POC/MOA issues and if anything either proves it or allows a strong inference that it's happening.  Not being a scientist, I'm sure I"ve confused some issues and missed some too.  I'm happy to share it (PDF or XLS) in the link below that should be accessible to all.

If anyone has better ideas, corrections, ommissions or different views that can be substantiated, or correcting some of my incorrect thoughts, I will update and try to keep this up to date as we hopefully see more de-risking over the next few months. More greens are the only way the share will be going up in my view. There wasn't enough in the 1A release to really answer any of the derisking questions, it just provided the dose as it was supposed to and some interesting hints, but none which were investable. More patients under a larger trial will obviously provide what's needed to answer or provide a better probability we can infer success on some of these issues.  

Like I said, additions, substractions, corrections are all welcomed.  I'm sure I've missed or misstated some things, but it's a start since we have 3 months.  I also think we should use both officially released data and the unique experiences from anywhere else they are found to handicapp these issues. Those other data points are highly useful and supportable. Let me know if you believe something should be changed and updated. RIght now, there's only a few hints of green in safety issues and most of it is, as we know, not known one way or the other --not de-risked. 

PDF Checklist:   
PDF Checklist

XLS Checklist:
XLS Checklist

[jfm1330]

The free docetaxel in the bloodstream at 11% of docetaxel injected alone is unclear. They do not specify if it is the total area under the curve (UAC) or the level of free docetaxel at a given point in time, like maximal concentration (Cmax) or about a time inteval.  As I said before, TH1902  and its linker will act as a slow release formulation of docetaxel. In other words, it will

[qwerty22]

I like your table, the obvious observation is there's a lot of spaces to fill in, question marks and forward looking statements. That makes commenting on the individual things you've written difficult but nothing stands out to me as horribly wrong.  I like the idea that bypassing resistance can help to add more to some of your efficacy sections as well.  You have the indirect