Post by
Wino115 on Nov 01, 2022 5:41pm
SeaGen ADC product revenues and valuations
Here's a similar view on SeaGen, the cancer ADC company that THTX could end up looking like if they see efficacy in many solid tumors.
Below is the net revenue numbers by product and here is what each are valued at. I've listed the cancer next to the drug name.
The below values are probability weighted DCFs of each products free cash flow. This is likely how you would see a good analyst value THTX if they get the SORT1 platform off the ground. The prize is enormous if they can get that efficacy in just one across the line in the next few months.
Adectris worth $4.0bil
Padcev worth $9.2bil
Tukysa worth $2.8bil
Tivdak worth $0.4bil
LV worth $0.8bil
They also add $4bil for the overall platform and this includes a big cut because of their need to now share revenues with Daiichi on the ADC technology.
An exercise like this, while very far away for THTX at this point, shows you how a company can repeatedly use it's platform across different cancers and what it can be worth. The first year of revenue for SeaGen was around 2013 for the Lymphoma drug Adectris, so not the solid tumor stuff they've now focused on. PadCev ADC revenues started in 2019, so only 3 years ago. Their market cap now is $24billion and the analyst has a target worth around $30bil based on these numbers.
Comment by
Biobob on Nov 01, 2022 6:54pm
Interesting... did any of those company trade like a worthless POS before they reached their glory days... was there any anticipation of success from analysts, from trial participants and their relatives.. some word of mouth, from speculators. Are we seing any of this atm, any hopefull signs of success to come...
Comment by
qwerty22 on Nov 02, 2022 12:54am
The Immunomedics (Trodelvy) story is worth a read. Certainly didn't smell of roses for a long time, whiff of something else.