The next 5 months will be interesting as I am sure the C-suite and the Board both realize Simone will need to be held to account for the current SP. my thought is if we are under $3 in May, some sort of shake up will happen. To get there I see 4 options starting with the most likely:
- Partner in oncology: on the heels of a revised nod from the FDA th could partner to find the program and seek external validation of the program. However it would need to be with a credible global player to have any material impact on the SP
- Commercial distribution rights: it would be great to leverage the distribution platform, however any proven drug could be expensive. On the other hand a new niche drug could be a cost effective way to partner, but the market would likely heavily discount any future potential due to the trogarzo flop.
- Partner in NASH: realistically if this is going to happen it won't be until the F8 is approved, but there is always the chance it goes ahead with less favourable terms to compensate the partner for the added risk
- Buyout: Stronger hands see the potential of the programs and can realize synergies. This combined with the tax losses is always a possibility
With the JPM HC conference running next week, i hope Paul and team show up with bells on ready to put on a show.