Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Here is how I see things

[SPCEO1]

It seeems clear to me that some institution is selling and doing so without concern for the share price. This likely reflects the seller is one or more portfolio manager(s) who is(are) forced to sell due to internal rules at their institution about holding tiny stocks like THTX. The stock no doubt now represents a tiny portion of their overall portfolio and selling it at any price likely has no discernible impact on their fund's performance. In my past professional life at Templeton, I would sometimes have to do this as did my colleagues. If this is what is goign on, it is not going to stop until the seller is out of shares. And obviously, it creates additional selling from other parties who are panicking that THTX is going bankrupt.

But THTX is not going bankrupt as the most recent news from the company confirms. Clearly, Marathon is willing to see how TH-1902 does early in its restarted trial before forcing THTX to shut that R&D program down - that is why THTX has until 10/31 to see what the early results look like on the restarted trial.If those results look good, then Marathon stands to make a lot on their warrants and wil continue to treat THTX with kid gloves. If those results look bad, then I would expect Marathon to pivot to forcing THTX to close down TH-1902 and all related R&D and focus on getting their $60 million back. That would mean THTX would immediately become profitable and start generating cash. A lot of executive salaries would be eliminated and the loan would likely be restructured to allow a longer term pay off as THTX continues to generate cash from its two legacy drugs and has little to no R&D. We could also expect Marathon to take another pound of flesh or ten from shareholders in exchange for restructuring the loan. Marathon is unlikely to bankrupt THTX because they would stand less of a chance of getting their $60 million back. It would be easier to allow THTX to conitnue to sell their two drugs and suck all the cash flow out of it to repay the loan than to bankrupt it and try to sell off the two drugs to recover their $60 million as it is inclear there would be many buyers willing to pay a nice price for those two products.

So, as I see it, bankruptcy talk is not rational. Marathon's latest action was to bet on TH-1902. THTX did the reverse split so they could stay on NASDAQ. Why would they stay on NASDAQ if they knew the company was on the verge of going under??? They would have delisted and saved the money. 

The stock price may be going bankrupt but THTX is not.

[crosbyman]

Certainly hope so  !!   can,t sell now  so I am hanging on for dear life 

[juniper88]

I agree with the part that this is an institution liquidating at any price.  But I am not too sure about the TH1902 part.  The trial still has not restarted.  It is extremely unlikely any results (that would give Marathon any assurances of the TH1902 trial eventually becoming a success) would come out before Oct 31st.   That is only 12 weeks away!!  Generally first

[SPCEO1]

Well there are lots of potential options with the restarted trial, but it would help to get it restarted! Perhpas they will announce that tomorrow as part of their presentation to the Canaccord conference at 1PM. So, while we may know nothing on October 31st about the trial THTX and Marathon will certainly be aware of all progress up to that point. It is likley that all six patients may have had

[juniper88]

Rusty, there is a reasonable possibility that you are right that something good will happen before October 31. But like most of us old timers, it now is "I will believe it when I see it". And probably like most old timers I haven't sold any shares. I will wait to see how this plays out.