Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Surprised

[Momo25]

Suddenly, and without any material information, the share price is skyrocketing. In less than 2 weeks, we are almost at 350% growth. What is the explanation of this surge? we don't know. It can never be the sales of the legacy drugs that made that difference. It can never be the oncology program neither, because they just started hiring candidates to go through the testing process. Positive Ebidta was counted for, for a while. It just happened before the end of the year. Without a significant revenue generation, that means they cut further in their internal costs or did some magic financial reengineering. 
As usual, we don't know what happened and we don't know where the SP is heading. The push button that makes it skyrocketing is the same that can deep dive it again.

[SPCEO1]

There was a large seller puking out shares at any price someone would buy them. That seller finally ran out of shares to sell and the stock is in the process of returning to a more normal price in light of the fundamentals. Good news on positive cash generation and the cash level created the volume needed to clean up the seller. So, there is likely still more upside in the stock. We will know more

[THobsv]

At $1 ($0.25 pre split), the company was being priced for bankruptcy with a $25mm market cap and $60mm EV, less than 0.7x sales. It was on the way to giving the company to Marathon. At $2.50, the EV is still right around 1x sales, which is a depressed level. The news that they have over $20mm in cash (satisfying Marathon loan covenant) and achieved their adjusted EBITDA goals early was an

[palinc2000]

Right on!!  

[palinc2000]

If through a mix of cash generation , stock issue and cash from partnership(Nash and or Th1902) they could take all or most of Marathon out the picture the SP would explode.... even with some dilution....    

[LouisW]

If TH can find an partner for NASH or TH1902 and obtain upfront payment, then Marathone is no longer a problem

[Trogarzon]

If they can get back to 5$ (1.25$ pre-reverse) would be price point for some bigger buyers.  I would'nt be surprise we go there this week.

[palinc2000]

Marathon will be a problem until it is taken out .. They have a lien on all the assets and the carryng cost is very costly. It needs to be taken out completely or at least reduced substantially even  if  TH do not find a partner.... Increasing sales of the legacy drugs would /will mean increased cash generation which will lead to higher SP allowing for a 5-10 % dilutive financing to

[Trogarzon]

In less than a year they have to reimburse 30M to Marathon and can option to renegociate the balance of the loan with some other Bank if they want.  Any upfront deal or financing will come in reduction of this liability.  The problem they have now is the pipeline is not recognised in any way and they spent like 60M on it.  That is now but it can change and considering the data there

[SPCEO1]

I agree that getting Marathon off the books or minimizing their involvement is likely the best solution. Here is a proposal for current THTX shareholders to accomplish this: Would you as a THTX shareholder be willing to purchase a THTX straight preferred share yielding, say 8%, in order to help THTX retire some or all of the Marathon debt? That would be a below market rate of interest for a

[Trogarzon]

Too complicated... Thera has one year to create value with their pipeline and clean their balance sheet with some kind of deal with upfront cash.  As a last resort affordable solution maybe.

[SPCEO1]

It is actually a very simple solution. Issue a preferred equity with an 8% dividend - pretty basic stuff. They have between now and July to come up with that upfront cash in a partnership deal you mentioned and maybe they will. For the moment, however, it seems like a stretch. But there is a lot we do not know about TH-1902 which a potential aprtner might. But to give THTX $20 million upfront, I

[palinc2000]

Not sure if I would participate in a preferred share issue but I would not even condider it unless Marathon was completely OUT .The prepayment penalty does not bother me . What I do want is a Dec 31 2023 deadline for THTX to have the funds in hand to be able the meet the Aug 2024 repayment...Dont want to be at the mercy of Marathon next August   An 8% annual dividend means a cash outlay

[Momo25]

SPECEO is suggesting to financing the mess of Paul Levesque. Take note that he discussed the topic with the management before sharing it with us. The art of manipulation!