Post by
contragalo on Sep 22, 2013 1:18pm
debeaude, I have the same concern. My thoughts below.
debeaude, your numbers are accurate. And is impossible for TID to meet future scheduled payments under the current circumstances. For me is surprising the absence of news regarding the September payment, Dawson knows that December (and then March, and then June, and then September, and then December again) is a dead end for Tuscany if a refinancing deal is not reached or the balance sheet doesn’t get fixed through a capitalization or an asset sale. Having said that, my best guess is that some kind of agreement has been reached regarding the September payment, ComradeMickey is right in his assessment that missing a required payment had to make noise immediately. I believe that there are still negotiations underway and the market will be informed as soon as a deal is reached (I´m still a believer that Tuscany and creditors will reach an agreement, I don’t see Wall Street executives drilling in the jungle). Hurdles remain the same: without a permanent fix to Tuscany’s balance sheet, this will be a never ending story and the stock price will be lagging no matter how cheap are ratios as Price/Book Value. And to fix the balance sheet (and getting a credible, long term and good refinancing terms) Tuscany has to come up with at least 50M$ in fresh funds (through a capital infusion, asset sales or bringing a strategic partner). There is almost a non-existent presence of institutional investors in Tuscany (out of the controlling group) after Fidelity and two mutual funds sold their holdings. This can be good (under a credible financial scenario some big players can reenter and clean the market, driving up the stock price to a more logical level) but it also can prove disappointing (there are too many shares in hands of retail investors, marked at bargain prices, and this is the reason why any gain can’t be upheld for more than 1 week, this is the description of current market action).