Taseko Mines Ltd T.TKO

Looking ahead

[JCSunsfan]

So.  Let's just assume that the permit comes and Florence get's built and runs at full capacity.  What kind of income generation would that be and what type of market cap should that generate?

BTW.  All USD amounts here. 

The mining world seems to run between a 7 and 10 multiple for a PE.  It's lower than most industries, but dems the berries.

Let's assume a $4/lb copper price.  Don't want to be too optimistic or pessimistic.

Florence is projected to produce 80 million pounds of pure copper cathode per year at a C1 of $1.10.  That is $232 million per year EBITDA.

Gibralter is projected to produce 120 million pounds per year at a c1 of $2.50 or so. That is probably to optimistic.  Let's call it $2.75. That is $150 million per year EBITDA.  Of course, Gib is only 75% owned by Taseko so that drops to $112 million.  (You see what a difference Florence is).

Assume other costs will eat up $100 million or so per year.  Maybe more.  You do your own guessing. That would result in $244 million per year earnings.  At a 7 PE that would be a market cap of $1.708 billion and at a 10 PE of $2.44 billion. 

I think these numbers are very conservative.  Present market cap is $332 million.  

Conclusion.  Finished Florence should produce somewhere between 5 and 7 bags in SP.

[nofluff]

Yah jc. Sp mulyiples have a lot to do with debt and dividend. Looking ahead, lets say 2024 q4 we are flor. full ramp. Lets say to the bank is 100 million u,s. per year gib. I believe we have 130 mill u.s. in bank. So 330 million. Lets say 200 million to finish flor. That leaves 130 million in bank. Net debt 120 million against 300 million ebitda oer year. nf

[JCSunsfan]

This is why they are looking at a small credit facility if they run uncomfortably low on cash building Florence rather than looking for a junior partner.   Why pay perpetually when you can get a short term loan and be finished?

[nofluff]

Not sure quite what you mean, looking at j.c. They did abinding agreement for 50 million u.s. about a year ago. My guess is that they pay 3% on undrwan funds and 8% on drawn. If they had known, there would have been high copper price for the year and a year permit hold up, they may not have done it. No biggy. I would have done that deal. Gib earns more cash% as price and grade go up. Each mine

[nofluff]

o.k. jc. I listened to the archived. We are getting set up for a massive give away. Just like the 40 million pp gave away 10% of tko, they are looking at small stream or other such. Those are incredible high financings. Currently, tko has spent about100 million with test and procurment. So if test is not included, then 50 million has bin spent on capex. So that leaves about 180 million capex to

[JCSunsfan]

Where did you hear "PP" in the CC?  

[nofluff]

Sorry if I sound sceptical. nf

[JCSunsfan]

Check your private messages.  I sent you some info.

[nofluff]

The pp came in as something like the stream. So all high cost financing when 20 million could be a bump up on 50 million np. nf

[nofluff]

I never look at inbox jc. Not sure why u could not post that public. However as I have indicated, out of respect, I did read. I post on here, and tko does read stockhouse. so my voice is heard.  Nf

[JCSunsfan]

I agree with you. Simple loan is the best way to bridge any gap.

[nofluff]

So some math again. 120 mill u.s. plus 50 revolving is 170 in hand. Capex for flor is 230 I believe. Full permit could be issued around new year. With im0roved grade and 2.00 u.s. profit. we should bump the bank to 1.70 u.s. by year end. 50 mill has already been spent which about balances the bank. The 2 years of gib profit while building should more than cover. However, I understand, the need for

[JCSunsfan]

This is reasonably barring any unforseen macro market issues--war, recession, depression, pandemic, etc. 

[JCSunsfan]

I do believe the two year build time is probably too long.  People around the mining community in AZ are talking about 12 months now.  They have cut the build time significantly by ordering and taking delivery on a number of long lead time equipment.  I think 18 months is the longest. 

[bpk1970]

Hey nofluff - you're the local guru here (along with jcsunfan). What is your opinion of this post?  I'm a little skeptical. https://www.epa.gov/publicnotices/intent-issue-class-iii-underground-injection-control-area-permit-florence-copper-inc Thanks for your thoughts.

[JCSunsfan]

Why skeptical.  That is it.  That is what we have been eating for.  That is the EPA manager in charge of the Taseko case. Monday is going to be something.

[bpk1970]

Awesome.

[Returns2021]

This JC guy is truly delusional.  

[metalhead666]

GURU?  BHWAAA!  Everything this imbecile has touched is at all time lows and 3 of the 4 headed for bankruptcy!   You must love the Trump Messaih too eh?