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July 19, 2022
Spin Master Corp. Read-through from Hasbro's Q2 results & conference call
TSX: TOY | CAD 44.15 | Outperform | Price Target CAD 65.00
Sentiment: Positive Hasbro's Q2 Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS well ahead of consensus – Adjusted EBITDA of $308.3MM and Adjusted EPS of $1.15 were well ahead of consensus at $260.5MM and $0.94, respectively. The company maintained its full year target of low- single-digit revenue growth (noting this is now on a constant currency basis) and mid-single-digit operating profit growth (to drive an operating profit margin of 16%). As it relates to Spin Master, we believe Q2 results point to a supportive demand backdrop and results from Hasbro indicate that toy companies are still navigating the broader supply chain challenges fairly well (we note that Hasbro purchased inventory earlier than the traditional time frame during H1 to help ensure higher in-stock levels at retail).
Read-through for Spin Master
• Supply chain challenges are improving – Hasbro noted that while supply chain disruptions are still present, the headwinds are easing and retailers are continuing to manage through them well. On the earnings call, management noted that transit times/costs are improving (management is seeing a decline in port congestion delays). As it relates to Spin Master, while we expect supply chain disruptions to continue impacting results to some extent, we believe that the company will be able to manage through the headwinds well (we remind readers that the Spin Master raised its guidance at Q1 reporting; see our Q1 results note here).
• Higher input and freight costs partially offset by price increases – The company noted that input/freight costs were higher in its Consumer Products segment in Q2; however, this cost pressure was partially offset by price increases implemented during the quarter. On the earnings call, management noted that they expect these price increases to become more meaningful in Q3 and Q4. As it relates to Spin Master, we view these higher costs (and mitigating factors such as pricing, as well as higher mix of Digital revenue; see our TOY Investor Day note here) as being well telegraphed and believe they have been adequately reflected in consensus estimates.
Relevant commentary/trends by categories:
• Consumer Products segment (Habro’s toys business) Q2 Net Revenue was +7% YoY – By segment, Q2 Net Revenue in North America was +11% YoY, while International segment Net Revenue was +1% YoY (reflecting -8% YoY in Europe, -3% YoY in Asia Pacific, and +36% YoY in Latin America). On a constant currency basis, Consumer Products Net Revenue grew 9% YoY. Q2 2022 POS was "down" (Preschool POS was "up"), which partly reflected the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Amazon Prime Day shifting from Q2 to Q3.
