Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

Post from IV board:

[PipelessPauper]

There have been recent calls for OPEC to increase their quotas to reign in the price of oil.

 

Let's think this through:

In the more distant past, once the price of oil rose past a certain point then lots of capital would flow into exploration and development which would eventually (a few years later) flood the market with oil causing the price to crater.  In the past OPEC had to be careful to keep the market at a place of balance to avoid a future glut of new oil.

 

 In the recent past, the shale oil mania showed that oil could be developed at a far cheaper price than it could historically.  OPEC lost it's control. Shale oil companies had no discipline causing over supply but with short reserve life high decline assets.  All the market saw was oversupply at $40 - $50 oil.

 

What's different about now?  

 

Well, with the western nations reaching anti oil mania levels this past year we have new rules in the oil investment game.  Western oil and gas companies are being treated with hate and disdain.  They have been vilified beyond my comprehension.  The investment public has changed dramatically over these two or three years.  We are left with sale prices on oil stocks and significant pressure on those financing oil companies' capital programs.  

 

Now back to OPEC.  Given the present dynamics why would they raise quotas significantly to suppress the price of oil?  What is the benefit for any oil exporter to reduce the price of oil in this climate?  Investment in oil fields is falling not rising despite $70 oil.  The only risk I see is an oil price that is so high it could cause a recession.  IMO that is already inevitable.  OPECs best course of action is to get oil up near $100, then raise production and talk down the price somewhat while hopefully the Western world realizes that we still need oil and development starts to slowly ramp up to meet demand.  At today's prices the average person still believes it is a short term thing and that oil will obviously fall back to $40.  We need oil to break through $80 and stay there for people to truly wake up.  I see absolutely no reason for OPEC to try to lower the price of oil right now.  

 

An additional thing to consider is emotion.  I imagine most oil investors feel vilified right now - I certainly do.  Just imagine how the political leaders in OPEC feel.  Many of these people are egomaniacs and I truly think they feel spurned by Biden and the rest of the world leaders with their calls for rapid transition away from gas burning vehicles.  It wouldn't surprise me if they want to cause a bit of financial pain to remind us of how reliant we are on their oil production.

[PipelessPauper]

I’m sick if correcting all the misinformation here- bad enough that i have to do it with generalist investors. But even among oil and gas investors?? I give up.  So this will likely be my last post for several weeks... but then I’ll be sure to come back and post “I told you so” when we run out of DUCs Or maybe I’ll just enjoy my many millions and not bother heres all my O&G (70

[Oldnagger]

Here's an idea ; if you want real fire power take a look at Crew (CR) lots of drilling ,rapidly growing production rates loads of resources seriously undervalued and a very knowledgeable group of posters

[sclarda]

PipelessPauper wrote I’m sick if correcting all the misinformation here- bad enough that i have to do it with generalist investors. But even among oil and gas investors?? I give up.  So this will likely be my last post for several weeks... but then I’ll be sure to come back and post “I told you so” when we run out of DUCs Or maybe I’ll just enjoy my many millions and not bother heres all

[PipelessPauper]

What the F*** is your problem man?  You know, I remember you from the BNE board back when it used to be my #1 a few years ago, and before I got the $6 million from my accident and nearly dying. and you’re still an obnoxious POS —- pretending that you know more than everyone. Calling other people names who dare challenge you....  But you know what the biggest difference is between me and

[sclarda]

PipelessPauper wrote What the F*** is your problem man?  You know, I remember you from the BNE board back when it used to be my #1 a few years ago, and before I got the $6 million from my accident and nearly dying. and you’re still an obnoxious POS —- pretending that you know more than everyone. Calling other people names who dare challenge you....  But you know what the biggest

[PipelessPauper]

Lol ’life experience’ .... being broke sucks eh? bet you have a lot of ‘experience’?

[Quintessential1]

[Quintessential1]

[CashGreenGold]

what's your point? But enough about me... Say Qu'unt,.... how's your under 11 cALL GOING??

[Quintessential1]

[geemonet]

Im still waiting for the "I told you so" about the DUCs. That really turned into a big ol nothingburger. 

[Oldnagger]

Personally, I believe the western worlds biggest concern is avoiding runaway petroleum prices that lead to inflation. That could trigger a lack of confidence that leads to higher interest rates. With extraordinary high levels of debt already , that would lead to a crippling of additional funding for infrastructure and more particularly the social spending and build back better hoopla Etc Etc. We