Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

$200 Oil ???

[whoLuLu]

[url=https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/200-oil-possible-if-climate-change-policies-bring-on-energy-starvation-say-energy-insidershttps://]https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/200-oil-possible-if-climate-change-policies-bring-on-energy-starvation-say-energy-insiders[/url]

[whoLuLu]

[url=httphttps://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/200-oil-possible-if-climate-change-policies-bring-on-energy-starvation-say-energy-insidershttps://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/200-oil-possible-if-climate-change-policies-bring-on-energy-starvation-say-energy-insiders://]https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/200-oil-possible-if-climate-change-policies-bring-on-energy-starvation

[whoLuLu]

https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/200-oil-possible-if-climate-change-policies-bring-on-energy-starvation-say-energy-insiders

[stockmarket1]

That is decades down the road imho. Just like the article states....OIL pretty much would have everything go against it for us seeing $200.  Now, that said....seeing $100 WTI or very close to $100 is much more reasable within --per say -- 2 year time line. 

[CashGreenGold]

WHERE WILL THE OIL COME FROM WHEN WE RUN OUT OF DUCs? It's closer than you think..... why can't it??  Because we've had a 13 year bear mkt and O&G inestors have just becomed condtioned to "waiting for the next shoe to drop'? “The most exciting returns are to be had from an asset class where those who know it best, love it least, because they have been hurt the

[stockmarket1]

Like I said..... I don't see $200 oil anytime soon. $100....yes. These articles are ....to some degree... Fabricated for publication and nothing else. Like anyone else. It's just someones opinion. I don't believe everything I read. $200 oil? Ya... Maybe in a couple of decades. Certainly not within 10 yrs though. You can quote me on that too.

[geemonet]

They'll drill more wells.... I understand you're from Ontario and you're an accountant and don't have a real firm grasp on how the drilling industry works... but... they don't find ducs at a pond. They drill holes in the ground. Around dec 2019 this lil virus called covid 19 came out and people stopped wanting as much oil, so... all the holes they were drilling they didn't

[PipelessPauper]

So why havnt they drilled any yet? We’re back to 2013 levels on DUCs “ ‘Live’ DUC well inventory fell to lowest since 2013 as the US continues to frack more than it drills”

[geemonet]

They are.... the number of drilling rigs deployed is going up....    they frac the DUCs to get the black goo and gas to come out.  They'll put out more drilling rigs as the DUCs come down, and the rigs they have out will be the best crews around. All highly experienced guys and they'll drill hard and fast.  What is very interesting is the USA pulling its missel

[PipelessPauper]

“this duc stuff.... it's not going to have the impact you think it will... the oil companies control the DUC count, its going down cuz they want it to go down... sure it'll drive price up a bit... but then they'll want to cash in on that so they'll drill drill drill. You underestimate their drilling capabilities.” .... and why didn’t they cash in on it at $75 oil? $68 oil will

[geemonet]

Buddy... just look at the graph of active drilling rigs. It's not rocket science. $200 oil due to DUCs???? You must still be delirious from the pain meds after your accident. I wish you were right... but you're clearly high. Stick to math, cuz you're logic blows. 

[PipelessPauper]

You must be a Democrat or Turd-oh voter my mistake, you can’t reason with stupidity. carry on fool

[geemonet]

NAw buddy, I'm just some hick from alberta who works on a drilling rig. Ain't no fancy smancy accountant from Ontario. 

[geemonet]

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_oil_rotary_rigs pretty easy to read this graph...

[PipelessPauper]

Try zooming out to a 5 year view... here’s RYSTAD: “US tight oil operators have for several months been depleting their inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and, amid a slower drilling response, the number of ‘live’ DUCs in the country’s major oil regions slumped to 2,381 wells in June 2021, the lowest level since 2013, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals. The total number of

[geemonet]

Yes, exactly. Look at the 5 year view of the rig count. It shows that they can literally double the amount of rigs in the field anytime they want to.... your logic is flawed. You think because they're using half their available rigs they'll run out of DUCs.... NO!!! It means they can make more DUCs anytime they want!!!! 

[PipelessPauper]

“It shows that they can literally double the amount of rigs in the field anytime they want to....” yet they havnt WHY IS THAT?

[geemonet]

Cuz opec has curtailed production. Cmon man. It's not hard to understand. You're better than this. 

[geemonet]

And yea, I've read that a few times. But lots of journalists say lots of things. For every journalist who says there will be $100 oil there is another that says there will be $40 oil. You're a smart guy. It doesn't make sense that oil will hit $200 due to DUCs, that would mean the companies that sell the oil... would... not sell oil... doesn't make sense. They'll drill. They

[PipelessPauper]

A 13 year commodity bear market has really gotten to your head. “The most exciting returns are to be had from an asset class where those who know it best, love it least, because they have been hurt the most.” —- Don Coxe

[geemonet]

I believe whole heartedly that there is money to be made here.... but it's Persians shooting rockets not DUCs that'll do it .  im long the stock, and I appreciate most of your posts... but this DUC thing is a red herring. Your interpretation of it doesn't make sense. 

[geemonet]

You gotta remember that that 13 year bear market was caused by 2 things the war in Iraq winding fown the USA learning how to frac and drilling a ton of wells.  they can ramp up drilling anytime they want.  war.... smells like somethings brewing to me. 

[PipelessPauper]

“they can ramp up drilling anytime they want.” so why havnt they?? Small increases, yes, but not enough to stem the DUC canabilization at least we both found VET ... it’s my largest holding

[geemonet]

Because OPEC has curtailed production.... cmon man. Cmon. 

[PipelessPauper]

There we go.... so you’re starting to get it OPEC is gonna have the sword of Damocles hanging over NA EPs for years.... unfortunately DUCs only have a few months left

[geemonet]

DUC count and number of drilling rigs drilling are inversely proportional. As DUCs go down, rigs go up. It's what we're seeing. If you over lap DUCs amd Rigs on the same chart it's very easy to see. 

[PipelessPauper]

Yea, but not enough rigs to halt the decline in DUCs

[geemonet]

But they can... they CAN double the rigs in the field. If they want to have 10,000 DUCs in a year... they CAN.  the horse pulls the cart. The cart does not push the horse. 

[PipelessPauper]

“But they can... they CAN double the rigs in the field.” .... sure... I can also get a cheap hooker in DT Toronto and risk getting aids.. but I’m too scared to  just the same as NA EPs are too scared to drill more because of OPEC ...so they’ll use up DUCs till there’s none left

[geemonet]

Your ANALogy is so close I thought you had it. But yeah, pretty much once the DUCs are cleared they'll drill more wells.  you understand DUCs are excess inventory right?  or do you think that once the DUCs are gone and that everyone in the American oil industry will just retire and then they'll import oil for $200 a barrel?  your last post seems to be arguing for

[PipelessPauper]

I might be an Ont accountant, but I have almost $2 million in the O&G space....  so yes, I know what DUCs are. When we run out, what will they replace used up wells with?? You’re a driller so you should know this. But for anyone else reading - the answer is NOTHING PRODUCTION DROPS If we want to avoid production declines, we should have been drilling more aggressively MONTHS ago. It

[geemonet]

They'll drill before they run out. You'll never see zero DUCs. ... that's why the rig count is going up. 

[PipelessPauper]

“They'll drill before they run out. You'll never see zero DUCs. ... that's why the rig count is going up.” ... are you sure?? Their actions certainly tell the opposite tale... $75 oil didn’t do it...why would $68??? But We’re just beating a dead horse at this point. You clearly have your mind made up.... and you DEFINITELY arnt changing mine....  so we’ll just see where the

[geemonet]

500 active rigs will drill minimum 1500 wells a year. That's a suuuuuuuper low number. Likely to be 2500. So.... yeah. DUCs aren't running out anytime soon. And they have had double the rigs in the field...  id bet you won't even see a 5% drop in USA production. and USA oil is only 10% of world production....   Going to take a lot more than DUC count to get to $200 a

[PipelessPauper]

I think you’re wrong... but we’ll see.  The DUCs are still declining... so when will enough rigs come out to halt the decline?

[Oldnagger]

Interesting discussion guys, but I think a new factor has entered the equation and that is that new wells will not be able to be completed and produced till the nat gas is also tied in and sent to a gas plant. The old days of flaring gas on new wells is over. That consideration will apply noy only to newly drilled wells but also newly completed duc's. I have no idea how many wells will be

[PipelessPauper]

Very good point Nagger

[geemonet]

Talk about something cool like how governments printing money will lead to inflation which will drive up the price of oil and how it will impact VET. I'd genuinely like to hear your perspective on that. 

[PipelessPauper]

I agree with you 100 % there: A post I made: ”I had a post on here recently about JUST this topic.  Borrowing money to finance these forays is the best thing you can do. Then you can pay back the loan with inflated $$  It works for the gov't....it will work for you.  "I don't know the answer to your question.... but I am trying to hold the EXACT OPPOSITE of what